Cardinals vs. Cubs Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Friday, Aug. 14

The Chicago Cubs open a weekend series with the St. Louis Cardinals on Friday afternoon as they look to build their lead in the National League wild card race.

Chicago has a six-game lead on the top spot in the NL wild card, and it’s just four games out of the top spot in the NL Central after winning eight of its last 10 games.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals are fighting for the third and final wild card spot in the NL, sitting three games back of the Philadelphia Phillies.

St. Louis is set as a massive underdog on the road in this matinee matchup, as lefty Matthew Liberatore is set to face the Cubbies for the fourth time this season. St. Louis has won one of his first three starts against the Cubs and 13 of his 23 outings in 2026.

However, Liberatore has an ERA over 5.00 heading into this matchup.

Chicago has trade deadline acquisition Clay Holmes (2.86 ERA) on the mound for the second time in a Cubs uniform. Holmes allowed four runs in four innings in his last start against the Kansas City Royals – his first outing since he went on the injured list with a fibula fracture.

I’m eyeing a player prop and a prediction for this matchup, so let’s take a look at the odds for the NL Central showdown.

Cardinals vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Cardinals +1.5 (-142)
Cubs -1.5 (+118)

Moneyline

Cardinals: +169
Cubs: -182

Total

8 (Over -109/Under -110)

Cardinals vs. Cubs Probable Pitchers

St. Louis: Matthew Liberatore (5-9, 5.15 ERA)
Chicago: Clay Holmes (4-5, 2.86 ERA)

Cardinals vs. Cubs How to Watch

Date: Friday, Aug. 14
Time: 2:20 p.m. EST
Venue: Wrigley Field
How to Watch (TV): Apple TV
Cardinals record: 61-60
Cubs record: 71-51

Cardinals vs. Cubs Best MLB Prop Bets

Cubs Best MLB Prop Bet

Alex Bregman to Hit a Home Run (+599)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run props column – Daily Dinger – why Bregman is undervalued at this price:

There may not be a hotter hitter in the National League right now than Chicago Cubs infielder Alex Bregman.

The three-time All-Star has four home runs in his last six games, hitting .375 with a 1.339 OPS during that stretch.

On top of that, Bregman has seven home runs in his last 25 games, posting a .304 batting average and a .965 OPS during that stretch. Those numbers are way ahead of Bregman’s season averages, and he’s raised his home run total from nine to 16 over this 25-game stretch.

Now, Bregman takes on St. Louis Cardinals lefty Matthew Liberatore, who has a 5.15 ERA and has allowed 20 home runs in 23 appearances this season. Not only has Bregman hit left-handed pitching better this season (.270 batting average, .795 OPS), but he’s 3-for-7 against Liberatore in his career with two doubles and a home run.

At +599, Bregman is extremely undervalued to go deep on Friday afternoon.

Cardinals vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

The Cardinals have hit the UNDER more than any team in MLB this season, but I’m going to go against that trend in this series opener.

The Cubs and Cardinals have combined for 10 runs in each of Liberatore’s last two starts against St. Louis, and the young lefty hasn’t exactly pitched well in 2026.

Liberatore has a 5.15 ERA and ranks in the 16th percentile in MLB in expected ERA and the 14th percentile in expected BAA. Not only that, but Liberatore has a 6.10 ERA since June 1 and has allowed four or more runs in 12 of his 23 outings this season.

Holmes struggled in his first start back from a major leg injury, and the right-hander has worse advanced numbers (an expected ERA of 4.23) than his actual ERA suggests. The Cubs have also been one of the hottest offenses in MLB, jumping to No. 1 in the league in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) this season.

I think this total is a little low given this starting pitching matchup on Friday.

Pick: OVER 8 (-109 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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