Cardinals vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, Sept. 24

The Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals have played a couple of low-scoring games to open the week, and they’ll close out this three-game set on Thursday afternoon with two intriguing starters on the mound.

Paul Skenes (3.91 ERA) will make his final start of the regular season for Pittsburgh, as he looks to keep his ERA under 4.00 after a down 2026 season. The Pirates are just 14-17 when Skenes starts this season, a major drop off from 2025.

St. Louis will counter with righty Kyle Leahy, who has a much better actual ERA (3.65) than his expected ERA (4.88) in 2026.

Both of these teams are eliminated from playoff contention, but the Pirates could secure an over .500 season with a strong finish over their last four games. They’re set as favorites at home in the rubber match between these NL Central rivals.

Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Thursday’s series finale.

Cardinals vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Cardinals +1.5 (-174)
Pirates -1.5 (+144)

Moneyline

Cardinals: +134
Pirates: -163

Total

6.5 (Over -123/Under +102)

Cardinals vs. Pirates Probable Pitchers

St. Louis: Kyle Leahy (10-5, 3.65 ERA)
Pittsburgh: Paul Skenes (10-11, 3.91 ERA)

Cardinals vs. Pirates How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Sept. 24
Time: 12:35 p.m. EST
Venue: PNC Park
How to Watch (TV): MLB.TV/Cardinals.TV
Cardinals record: 77-81
Pirates record: 80-78

Cardinals vs. Pirates Best MLB Prop bets

Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

Paul Skenes UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-164)

This season, Skenes has struck out 192 batters in 168 innings of work, ranking in the 73rd percentile in MLB in whiff percentage and the 83rd percentile in strikeout percentage.

Despite that, I’m fading him in his final start of 2026.

St. Louis has done a solid job all season of avoiding the punchout, ranking seventh in MLB in K’s per game (averaging less than eight per night). Skenes did have nine K’s in his lone start against the Cards this season, but he’s failed to clear 6.5 strikeouts in seven of his eight outings since Aug. 1.

The Pirates may have a shorter leash with their ace on Thursday, as there’s no reason to risk him getting hurt ahead of next season with the playoffs already out of reach. If Skenes only goes around five innings, I think the UNDER is a great bet against this St. Louis offense.

Cardinals vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

The first two games in this series both finished with six or fewer runs, but I think this total is a bit of an overreaction to Skenes being on the mound.

The Pirates right-hander is still one of the best pitchers in MLB, but he’s allowed five or more runs in four of his last 10 starts, posting a 4.96 ERA over that stretch. St. Louis’ offense isn’t awful right now, ranking 11th in the league in runs scored over the last 30 days.

So, it wouldn’t shock me if Skenes allowed a few runs in this start, and both of these teams have bullpens with ERAs over 4.00 this season.

Plus, Leahy has not been great in 2026, even though his ERA supports a solid season. The right-hander has not pitched more than five innings in a game since the start of August, and he ranks in the 18th percentile in expected ERA, the 10th percentile in expected BAA and the first percentile in average exit velocity against.

Pittsburgh is ninth in OPS in MLB across the last 30 days, so it may be able to tag the Cardinals righty early on in this matchup.

I’ll take the OVER since it’s very rare to get a total this low without it being a matchup between two elite starting pitchers.

Pick: OVER 6.5 (-123 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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