Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Prediction, Odds for Men’s Wimbledon Final

Brian Giuffra | Jul 12, 2025

Carlos Alcaraz is the betting favorite to win his third straight Wimbledon title. / Susan Mullane-Imagn Images

A rematch of the epic French Open final from a month ago has arrived as Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner renew tennis’s hottest rivalry in the Wimbledon championship match. Alcaraz, the two-time defending champion, is the betting favorite and oddsmakers believe this could be a lopsided final. 

Sinner had three match points in Paris but couldn’t close the deal and Alcaraz stagged an incredible comeback to win his second straight French Open. Just 22 years old, he's now a five-time major champion and can make it three in a row at the All England Club with a win on Sunday. 

Sinner is the other young star winning majors. He’s claimed the last two Australian Open titles and is the defending U.S. Open champion. This is the farthest he’s advanced at Wimbledon, however. 

Let’s get into our betting pick starting with the odds, which all come from FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Odds

Moneyline 

• Carlos Alcaraz: -130 
• Jannik Sinner: +112

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Prediction

Sinner was dominating Alcaraz in Paris, up two sets to love and with three match points on Alcaraz’s serve. Then the Italian tensed up and never recovered.

It was a devastating result for the 23 year old, and it’s fair to wonder how confident he’ll be knowing this is Alcaraz’s best surface. His power is accentuated on grass and his movement gives him an edge on almost anyone. He's also serving bigger than Sinner.

Sinner will have to find a way to get into Alcaraz’s serve. Sinner’s return game is a strength and utilizing that against Alcaraz’s elite service game will be key. He's done it on everyone else he's faced, though he struggled in the Round of 16.

Alcaraz has won the last five matchups against Sinner and is 8-4 all time against him. Sinner upset Alcaraz in four sets during the 2022 Wimbledon Round of 16. That was their only meeting on grass, though much has changed since then. 

These are clearly the two best players in the world right now. The difference to me is the mental part of the game. Alcaraz is rock steady in that department. Sinner still has his moments of self-doubt, at least when Alcaraz is on the other side of the net. 

Best Bet: Alcaraz -130 (FanDuel) 

Simply put, this is Alcaraz’s best surface and he’s playing the best tennis of this tournament right now. Taylor Fritz played at an incredibly high level in the semifinals, and Alcaraz sent him packing in relatively short order. 

While Sinner is an excellent returner, he’ll find a hard time getting in on Alcaraz’s serve. The Spaniard shouldn’t have the same issue.

If you want to get bold, you can bet Alcaraz to win 3-0 in sets for +370. I know Sinner just took the first two sets in Paris before melting down, but I don’t think he’ll have the same success on grass. Alcaraz is hitting the ball clean and moving smoothly. I believe that will lead to an early break and quick first set. After that, it wouldn’t surprise me is Sinner loses confidence and fades. 

Alcaraz 3-0 +370 (FanDuel) 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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