Chargers vs. Broncos Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 18 (Can Denver Win Big?)

Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos have a simple task in Week 18 against the Los Angeles Chargers: Win and clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Denver held on to beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 17 on Christmas night, and it then clinched the AFC West with the Chargers’ loss to the Houston Texans on Saturday evening.

With L.A. guaranteed to end up in a wild card spot, Justin Herbert (hand) won’t play in this game to prepare for the playoffs.

Denver has New England and Jacksonville chasing it for the No. 1 seed, as a loss and a Patriots win over Miami would send Denver to at least the No. 2 seed. Jacksonville also has the tiebreaker over Denver, so a win by Trevor Lawrence and company coupled with a Broncos loss would knock them down the standings as well.

Oddsmakers have the Broncos favored at home in this game, where they have just one loss all season. But, Denver did lose to the Chargers earlier this season on a last-second field goal in L.A.

Can Jim Harbaugh’s group play spoiler without its starting quarterback on Sunday?

All season long, the SI Betting team has been predicting final scores for every NFL game as a fun way to help bettors decide on their spread and total bets.

Here’s where I’m leaning for this AFC West battle on Sunday afternoon.

Chargers vs. Broncos Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Chargers +12.5 (-110)
Broncos -12.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Chargers: +575
Broncos: -850

Total

37.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

There has been a ton of odds movement in this game after Herbert was ruled out for this game, as the spread went from Denver -7.5 all the way up to Denver -12.5.

The Broncos still need this game for the No. 1 seed, which is why the odds have shifted so far in their favor on Sunday.

Chargers vs. Broncos Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for this game in his Road to 272 column, where he bets on every game, every week:

The Los Angeles Chargers still have something to play for, but they've decided to rest Justin Herbert in their season finale. Even with that being the case, while I don't think the Broncos are a fraudulent team as I did earlier in the season, I still think the betting market is too high on them. They're seventh in the NFL in DVOA, which is right around where I rank them as well. That's not enough for them to be favorites of more than a touchdown against a fellow postseason team.

Teams have found success running the football against the Broncos at times this season as they rank 13th in opponent rush EPA, which fits in well with what the Chargers' game plan will be. The Los Angeles defense also doesn't get the credit it deserves. It now ranks sixth in opponent EPA per play on the season, above the Broncos, who come in at 10th. That's enough for me to take the points with the Chargers.

With the AFC West out of reach and Justin Herbert dealing with a broken hand, it makes sense that L.A. is resting him in this game. The movement in the latest odds suggests a blowout, but Denver has not been against the spread as a favorite (2-9) all season long.

Since Denver needs a win for the No. 1 seed, I’ll back it to do so in Week 18, but not by this wide of a margin. I agree with MacMillan’s play for Sunday.

Final Score Prediction: Broncos 24, Chargers 13

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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