Chargers vs. Patriots Final Score Prediction for NFL Wild Card Weekend (Can L.A. Cover?)

Who wins this No. 2 vs. No. 7 matchup in the AFC?

The Los Angeles Chargers and quarterback Justin Herbert are underdogs on NFL Wild Card Weekend. / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Drake Maye and the New England Patriots are back in the playoffs in their first season under new head coach Mike Vrabel, and oddsmakers have set them as home favorites against Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers.

The Chargers dropped to the No. 7 seed in the AFC after deciding to sit Herbert in Week 18, but they still finished with an 11-6 record. 

Herbert is 0-2 in his two playoff games, throwing four picks in a brutal loss to Houston in the 2024 season. Can he change his fortune against a New England team that ended the Buffalo Bills run atop the AFC East?

The Patriots only faced one team with a winning record (Buffalo) this season, but it took care of business to get the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Maye is an MVP candidate (along with Matthew Stafford), and he’s looking to prove that the Patriots’ offense is elite against anyone in the NFL. 

All season long, the SI Betting team has been making final score predictions for NFL games, and the playoffs are no different! This is a fun way for us to give a take on a game and hopefully help bettors decide on the spread or total in the process.

Let’s dive into this Sunday night matchup, as the Patriots look to win their first playoff game of the Mike Vrabel era. 

Chargers vs. Patriots Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Chargers +3.5 (-112)
• Patriots -3.5 (-108)

Moneyline

• Chargers: +160
• Patriots: -192

Total

• 46.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

The spread in this game has held steady with the Patriots set as home favorites, but the total did jump from 45.5 at open to 46.5. 

The Chargers rested quarterback Justin Herbert in Week 18 against the Denver Broncos, setting up this matchup with a Patriots team that only beat one over .500 team in the regular season. 

While L.A. has a lot of injuries on the offensive line, it may be a little undervalued with this spread through the key line of three. 

Chargers vs. Patriots Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his favorite picks for the wild card matchups in his Road to Super Bowl 60 column where he bets on every playoff game: 

The Patriots' weak schedule has been a point of contention all season long, and for good reason. Yes, their record has been fantastic, and Drake Maye is a potential MVP, but the fact that they played just three games against teams that ended with winning records and went 1-2 in those games is a troubling sign moving into the postseason.

There's something to be said for the difference between these two defenses. The Patriots have had one of the worst defenses in the NFL, ranking 23rd in defensive DVOA, 11th in opponent EPA per play, and 18th in opponent success rate. The Chargers rank 10th, fifth, and seventh in those three metrics.

The biggest weakness for the Chargers is their injured offensive line, but the Patriots have pressured opposing quarterbacks on just 19.0% of their opponents' dropbacks, which ranks in the bottom 10 in the NFL. If they can't pressure Herbert, the Chargers may just pull off this upset.

Yes, the Patriots had a dominant regular season, but we’ve only seen them play one true contender all season (the Buffalo Bills) and they did blow a 21-0 lead at home in one of the matchups. 

Herbert and Maye have been two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this season, and while I think New England ultimately wins this game, the Chargers can keep this matchup close.

Los Angeles finished the regular season seventh in the league in EPA/Play on defense and was a top-10 team in yards per play allowed. That makes this one of the tougher games the Patriots have had all season, and they’re just 3-3 against the spread when the spread is 3.5 points or less. 

Final Score Prediction: Patriots 27, Chargers 24

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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