College Football ATS Picks for Every Top 25 Game in Week 10 (Bet Notre Dame to Cover vs. Miami)

We're entering the final stretch of the college football season and all the top teams in the country are pushing for a spot in their conference championship game, or maybe even a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Week 10 has a few fascinating games, including a showdown between No. 1 Miami and No. 11 Notre Dame.

As always, I'm going to give you my spread pick for every game involving a top-25 team in the latest AP Poll.

College Football Week 10 Picks

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

No. 22 New Mexico vs. Nevada Spread Pick

Pick: New Mexico -9.5 (-115)

TCU vs. No. 24 Arizona Spread Pick

TCU is a lot better than its record. The Horned Frogs are 39th in the country in net adjusted EPA per play and 43rd in net success rate. By comparison, Arizona ranks 31st and 26th in those two metrics.

The best and most well-rounded unit in this game is the TCU defense, which ranks 13th in opponent EPA per pass and 23rd in opponent EPA per rush as well as seventh in defensive success rate. They may not win, but they can keep this game within the spread.

Pick: TCU +8.5 (-110)

No. 7 BYU vs. No. 3 Utah Spread Pick

I've been high on Utah all season, and it's time for me to back them in their biggest game to date. Overall, the Utes have the more impressive metrics, ranking 10th in adjusted net EPA per play and fifth in net success rate. By comparison, BYU ranks 21st and 30th in those two stats.

One of the key aspects to keep an eye on in this game is the Utah rushing offense against the BYU run defense. Utah ranks 19th in EPA per rush and 22nd in rush success rate, while the Cougars rank 60th in opponent EPA per rush and 74th in opponent rush success rate.

BYU's hot start to the season has continued to make them overrated in the betting market. If the Utes can run the ball effectively, the Utes are going to come through as home favorites.

Pick: Utah -5.5 (-110)

No. 5 UCLA vs. Minnesota Spread Pick

Pick: UCLA -5.5 (-106)

No. 10 Texas vs. No. 19 Missouri Spread Pick

Pick: Texas -2.5 (-122)

Texas A&M vs. No. 23 South Carolina Spread Pick

This is a fantastic sell-high spot on South Carolina after winning three straight games, and a perfect buy-low spot on Texas A&M after losing two of its last three. The fact of the matter is that little separates these two teams. Texas A&M ranks 37th in adjusted net EPA per play and 40th in net success rate, while South Carolina ranks 26th and 67th in those two metrics.

The Aggies' defense and their ability to stop the run is what's going to help them cover this spread.

Pick: Texas A&M +6.5 (-102)

No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 15 LSU Spread Pick

Pick: LSU -5.5 (-110)

Oregon vs. No. 11 Ohio State Spread Pick

Pick: Ohio State -7.5 (-110)

Merrimack vs. No. 14 Wake Forest Spread Pick

Pick: Wake Forest -48.5 (-110)

Cincinnati vs. No. 17 Houston Spread Pick

Pick: Houston -10.5 (-120)

No. 20 Boise State vs. Colorado State Spread Pick

The Colorado State offense is good enough to keep them in this game. Sure, their defense is the worst in the nation, but their offense is extremely good which is going to make it difficult for Boise State to cover this 17.5-point spread.

The Rams rank second in all of college football in EPA per rush, and now they get to face a Boise State team that's 82nd in opponent EPA per rush and 45th in opponent rush success rate. Colorado State would be smart to keep the ball on the ground, move the chains, drain the clock, and keep it as close as possible for as long as they can.

Pick: Colorado State +17.5 (-114)

No. 8 Kentucky vs. No. 16 Tennessee Spread Pick

Pick: Kentucky +6.5 (-110)

No. 1 Miami vs. No. 4 Notre Dame Spread Pick

There's a reason that Notre Dame is favored in this game despite being ranked No. 4 in the country. The Hurricanes have some weaknesses; mainly, their secondary has been bad this season, ranking 110th in opponent EPA per pass and 103rd in opponent pass success rate.

That's going to feed right into Notre Dame's strength, which is throwing the ball. The Fighting Irish are fourth in both EPA per pass and pass success rate. They'll be able to torch Miami through the air, leading to a win and cover for Notre Dame.

Pick: Notre Dame -5.5 (-110)

No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 12 Ole Miss Spread Pick

Pick: Georgia -3.5 (-110)

No. 21 Iowa vs. Northwestern Spread Pick

Pick: Northwestern -2.5 (-124)

Oklahoma vs. No. 25 Florida Spread Pick

I can't trust this Oklahoma team based on how bad its offense has been. The Sooners are one of the worst rushing offenses in the nation, and they rank just 87th in EPA per pass.

The Sooners can win solely on their elite defense when they face inferior offenses that they can overwhelm, but the Gators' offense is too good to not at least put some points up on the Sooners. The Gators rank 23rd in adjusted EPA per play and 35th in offensive success rate. If they can find any level of success through the air, they can cover this spread as home favorites.

Fade the Oklahoma offense, bet the Gators.

Pick: Florida -6.5 (-105)

West Virginia vs. No. 13 Texas Tech Spread Pick

Pick: West Virginia +16.5 (-110)

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