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College Football Straight Up Picks for Every Game in Week 6 (Bet Alabama to Beat Georgia in Marquee SEC Matchup)

Bet on Alabama to beat Georgia in SEC action in Week 6 of the college football season.
Bet on Alabama to beat Georgia in SEC action in Week 6 of the college football season. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

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September is in the past and October is here as we prepare for Week 6 of the college football season.

With each passing week, the College Football Playoff picture becomes clearer as pretenders begin to expose themselves and contenders continue to impress.

Every week, I give you my pick to win every game that involves a team that's currently ranked in the top 25 in the country according to the AP Poll. The usual suspects make up the top five teams, but there are some interesting teams teetering on the edge of being national championship contenders, including BYU, which comes in at No. 8 this week, and Utah, which is up to No. 12.

Let's take a look at my pick to win every top 25 game this week.

College Football Week 6 Picks

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

No. 20 Iowa vs. Washington Prediction

Pick: Washington -164

Iowa State vs. No. 8 BYU Prediction

Pick: BYU -400

No. 7 Indiana vs. Nebraska Prediction

Nebraska isn't to be trifled with. The Cornhuskers are 11th in college football in adjusted EPA per play and fourth in net success rate through the first five weeks. People aren't yet taking them seriously due to the strength of their schedule so far, but they have scored 31+ points in all five games and now get to face an Indiana team that has had some concerning performances, including squeaking out a win against Northwestern two weeks ago.

I'm going to take a chance and take the Cornhuskers to hand the defending national champions their first loss of the season.

Pick: Nebraska +250

North Carolina vs. No. 25 Pittsburgh Prediction

The two defenses in this game are on complete opposite ends of the spectrum. North Carolina is 102nd in opponent success rate, while Pittsburgh comes in at 10th in college football in that metric. Say what you want about the Panthers' offense, but their defense is good enough to get them the win in this spot.

Pick: Pittsburgh -179

UCF vs. No. 18 Oklahoma State Prediction

Pick: Oklahoma State -380

Texas A&M vs. No. 14 Missouri Prediction

I don't know if I'm ready to declare Missouri a playoff team, but I can say I'm fairly confident that Texas A&M is one of the most overrated teams in the country. They're just 43rd in the country in net adjusted EPA per play, and they have a negative net yards per play metric of -1.1. I don't think this is going to be a letdown spot for the Tigers after their big win last week.

Pick: Missouri -173

South Carolina vs. No. 16 Florida Prediction

Pick: Florida -530

No. 9 Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt Prediction

Pick: Ole Miss -360

No. 1 Texas vs. Oklahoma Prediction

Pick: Texas -335

No. 22 Houston vs. Kansas State Prediction

Pick: Houston +120

No. 21 UCLA vs. No. 13 Oregon Prediction

It's easy to just assume that Oregon is the better team based on their preseason expectations, but I'm not quite ready to make that claim. UCLA enters the week ranked 14th in net adjusted EPA per play according to GameOnPaper.com, while Oregon comes in at 17th.

What's even more important is that the Ducks have struggled to stop the run in a major way. They rank 101st in opponent rush EPA and 81st in opponent rush success rate. That's terrible news for them now that they have to face a UCLA rushing attack that's averaging 7.0 yards per carry while ranking first in rush EPA and second in rush success rate.

Pick: UCLA +340

Stanford vs. No. 3 Notre Dame Prediction

Pick: Notre Dame N/A

Maryland vs. No. 5 Ohio State Prediction

Pick: N/A

No. 15 Tennessee vs. Arkansas Prediction

Pick: Tennessee -590

No. 10 LSU vs. Kentucky Prediction

Pick: LSU -345

No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 6 Alabama Prediction

If you believe in advanced metrics, than it's time to buy in on this Alabama team. The Crimson Tide are now second in the country in net adjusted EPA per play and first in net success rate, compared to Georgia which ranks 31st and 11th in those two metrics. This could be the last week that we can find a betting edge on Alabama.

Pick: Alabama -122

No. 19 USC vs. Penn State Prediction

Pick: USC +101

Kansas vs. No. 12 Utah Prediction

Pick: Utah -750

No. 23 Boise State vs. Fresno State Prediction

Pick: Boise State -250


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Iain MacMillan
IAIN MACMILLAN

Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network. He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.

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