College Football Straight Up Picks for Every Top 25 Game in Week 8 (Beat Texas to Get Bounceback Win vs. Ole Miss)

Week 7 of the college football season was the biggest shakeup of the year. No. 1 Georgia lost to Auburn; No. 2 Notre Dame lost to No. 8 BYU; No. 3 Miami needed double overtime to get past unranked Florida State; No. 6 Alabama lost to No. 14 Tennessee; No. 7 Texas lost to unranked Florida; and No. 4 Ohio State handed No. 5 Indiana its first loss in 22 games.

As a result, we have a brand-new top two nationally ranked teams. Miami gets the No. 1 spot in the latest AP Poll, and BYU moves all the way up to No. 2.

As I do each week, I'm going to break down my picks to win every game that involves a top-25 team this week. We don't care about the point spread in this article; all we care about is picking the winner. Let's dive into them.

College Football Week 8 Picks

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Pittsburgh vs. No. 1 Miami Prediction

Pick: Miami -1600

No. 6 Indiana vs. Michigan Prediction

It's time for Indiana to bounce back in a big way. Michigan simply isn't on the same level as the Hoosiers, and it's time we start treating them as such. The Wolverines are 26th in adjusted EPA per play and 22nd in net success rate. Their defense has been good, but their offense can't keep pace.

The Michigan offense is just 57th in the country in success rate and 52nd in adjusted EPA per play. Their defense can lead them to wins against most teams, but Indiana still belongs to the upper echelon of college football teams, ranking third in the country in net adjusted EPA per play and second in net yards per play.

Indiana is the superior team in this game. Let's lay the points on the Hoosiers.

Pick: Indiana -275

No. 8 Texas tech vs. Cincinnati Prediction

Pick: Texas Tech -450

No. 18 LSU vs. Auburn Prediction

Pick: LSU -300

California vs. No. 23 SMU Prediction

Pick: SMU -1100

Rutgers vs. No. 24 Northwestern Prediction

Pick: Northwestern -750

No. 2 BYU vs. UCF Prediction

At some point this season, BYU is going to suffer a loss that's going to surprise a lot of people. I'm willing to bank on it happening this week against a UCF team that's better than its record indicates.

The Cougars are certainly a good team, but they aren't without their flaws. They're outside the top 30 teams in the country in defensive success rate, and they're susceptible to the pass. Their main strength is their ability to run the ball, and if a team can slow them down in that area, they're going to be beatable. Unfortunately for them, run defense is the Knights' biggest strength, ranking 27th in opponent EPA per rush.

Don't underestimate UCF in this game.

Pick: UCF +210

Michigan State vs. No. 9 UCLA Prediction

Pick: UCLA -625

No. 11 Tennessee vs. South Carolina Prediction

The teams that are best suited to beat Tennessee are going to be teams that can play great defense and turn the game into a dogfight. Unfortunately, that's not this South Carolina team. They rank 115th in the country in defensive success rate, and their offense is largely just a worse version of Tennessee's.

The wrong team is favored in this game.

Pick: Tennessee +110

Texas A&M vs. No. 13 Alabama Prediction

Pick: Alabama -600

No. 15 Iowa vs. Minnesota Prediction

Iowa's all-defense, no-offense approach is a dangerous one to have, especially when you're on the road against a conference opponent. To make matters worse, unlike previous iterations of the Hawkeyes, this year's team can't stop the pass, ranking 105th in opponent EPA per pass. They may have the best run defense in the nation, but that's not going to help them against a pass-first Minnesota team that runs the ball on just 43.23% of plays, the 10th-lowest rate in college football.

Styles make fights, and I think the Golden Gophers have the advantage in this one.

Pick: Minnesota +200

No. 21 Boise State vs. Washington State Prediction

Pick: Boise State -525

No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 19 Texas Prediction

This is a fascinating game between good vs. good and bad vs. bad. What I mean by that is that the Ole Miss offense is clearly its strength, ranking as one of the better units in college football, while its defense is a significant weakness. The opposite is true for Texas, which thrives defensively but struggles to move the ball down the field.

That's why I'm going to take a step back, look at the overall numbers, and buy low on the Longhorns. Despite losing two straight games, the Longhorns still rank ninth in net adjusted EPA per play and 26th in net success rate.

I'm a big believer in treating betting on football like the stock market, and based on last week's results, this is a great sell-high spot on the Rebels and a buy-low spot on the Longhorns. With Texas at home, I'll put my faith in the Longhorns.

Pick: Texas -160

Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 Kentucky Prediction

Pick: Kentucky -450

No. 16 USC vs. Wisconsin Prediction

Pick: USC -150

Iowa State vs. No. 25 Arizona Prediction

Pick: Arizona -325

No. 14 Houston vs. No. 10 Utah Prediction

Pick: Utah -235

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