College Football Upset Picks for Week 4 (Bet Tennessee to Upset Texas)

The college football season marches on, and with most teams getting into the conference play portion of their schedules, get ready for the number of upsets to get cranked up a notch.

In last week's upset picks articles, I went 1-2 with my predictions, cashing in on Mississippi State to take down South Carolina and narrowly missing a big upset on Houston over Texas Tech.

Let's take a look at my top three upset plays for Week 4.

College Football Week 4 Upset Picks

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Tennessee +182 vs. Texas
Iowa +180 vs. Michigan
Tulsa +215 vs. Arkansas

Texas vs. Tennessee Prediction

I'm selling my stock on the Longhorns. Manning has not lived up to expectations, and this offense has averaged just 5.3 yards per play, which ranks 78th in the nation. Last week against UTSA, he threw for just 164 yards on 4.9 yards per pass attempt. Thankfully, their run game has been good enough to lead them to a comfortable win, but they won't be able to do that against the Volunteers.

Meanwhile, Tennessee ranks 18th in the nation in yards per play, averaging 6.6 yards per snap. They have scored 42+ points in each of their first three games.

With the Volunteers at home, I'm going to take Tennessee as my upset pick of the week.

Pick: Tennessee +182

Iowa vs. Michigan Prediction

Some people may have moved past the Western Michigan game, but I haven't. I don't care that they beat Oklahoma the following week; I'm still convinced that Michigan isn't nearly as good a team as the betting market is treating them.

Their offense ranks 74th in the nation in yards per play, averaging only 5.4 yards per snap. Now, they have to face a Hawkeyes defense that ranks second in yards per play, giving up only 3.3 yards per snap.

This is going to be a dogfight, and I'm going to trust the team that welcomes that kind of game. It's time for the Hawkeyes to expose the Wolverines for the frauds that they are. Keep the points; I'll take Iowa on the moneyline.

Pick: Iowa +180

Tulsa vs. Arkansas Prediction

I have bet against Arkansas several times already this season, and it has worked, so let's take it one step further and bet on them to lose outright as a 7-point favorite against Tulsa from the MAC.

Tulsa's advanced metrics were elite a year ago, and they're already off to a strong start to the 2026 season, going 3-0, including an impressive 24-10 win against Oklahoma State.

If they can beat the Cowboys, they can beat the Razorbacks. Give me Tulsa to pull off the upset.

Pick: Tulsa +215

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