College Football Week 1 Upset Picks (Is the Miami Hype Train in Trouble in 'The Swamp?')

College football is where chaos is the normal, so where can we look this weekend for some underdogs to cash in for us?

One of the biggest games of the Week 1 card is Miami taking its expensive roster to Gainesville to take on Florida in an in-state showdown. Are the Gators being overlooked? I discuss that and share my two other favorite underdog bets for the opening weekend.

Best College Football Upset Picks for Week 1

Florida (+126) vs. Miami
UNLV (+112) vs. Houston
Southern Illinois (+470) vs. BYU

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Florida vs. Miami Prediction and Pick

There is a lot of hype around the Miami team that has been built through the transfer portal, but I’m not sure it will be so easy on the road against Florida.

Many are down on the Gators and projecting the end of Billy Napier’s tenure due to the most difficult schedule in the country, but that’s the end of the season, and I believe some of the negative sentiment is bleeding into this game.

The Gators have a more than capable passing game with Graham Mertz and pass catchers Eugene Wilson and transfer Elijah Badger to test an unproven Miami defense that the value skews towards the home underdog.

Will all the pieces click for the Hurricanes so quickly? This is a tough ask in the first game of the season against a Florida offense that checked in the top 30 in EPA/Pass last season. I believe this game will be decided in the final few minutes, and this Gators team ranks 22n in returning production. It could be the difference between a win and a loss against a team with little to no chemistry.

PICK: Florida (+126)

UNLV vs. Houston Prediction and Pick

While the quarterback competition may give pause for sports bettors, I’m buying into the system in place from Barry Odom and his OC Marion to keep this Rebels offense performing at a high level.

The Rebels ranked 39th in EPA/Play and returned three starters on the offensive line as well as nearly all key contributors in the skill position corps. So, while quarterback may be a question, the rest of the roster is ready to roll on offense.

On defense, Odom’s unit fell apart down the stretch of 2023, but did a great job in the transfer portal to rebuild the roster, including landing the likes of former Power Four safety Jalen Catalon. This unit can likely take a step forward in 2024 with more talent on hand and another year of Odom’s coaching.

Meanwhile, Fritz takes over at Houston with a skeleton crew that makes many believe this will be a considerable rebuild. While Smith showed some flashes, it's a tall ask for Houston to make a big jump from 73rd in EPA/Play last season.

I’m going to bank on the more proven system that is further along at the start of the season in terms of implementing a scheme, and back the Rebels as small underdogs.

PICK: UNLV (+112)

Southern Illinois vs. BYU Prediction and Pick

FCS powerhouse Southern Illinois takes the trip to Provo, Utah to face BYU.

The Salukis have plenty of firepower to hang with the Cougars, who had a down year in its first season in the Big 12 and enter with a host of questions, including an ongoing competition on the offensive line and at quarterback between returning backup Jake Retzlaff and transfer quarterback Gerry Bohannon.

SIU is not a typical FCS foe, a routine entrant in the FCS Playoffs and an elite defense. Last season, Nick Hill’s group knocked off Northern Illinois on the road, beat Northwestern the year prior, and the year before that led Kansas at halftime.

Built on its defense, SIU will look to keep this game low-scoring, which gives even more of a nudge towards the underdog where only a few plays can be the determining factor on Saturday.

While Hill is replacing a few key players, the team returns its leading pass catcher and four offensive linemen that can offset a BYU defense that ranked 89th in EPA/Play and struggled to get any pressure in the backfield (124th in tackles for loss).

As indicated above, the total sits at 50.5, and with a host of questions on the BYU side, I believe there is far more variance in this one than the point spread indicates. I’ll take the FBS slayer Salukis to pull a big upset on Saturday night. a

PICK: Southern Illinois (+470)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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