Cubs vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, June 25

The New York Mets’ season continues to go in the tank, as they’ve dropped five games in a row and are now looking to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Chicago Cubs on Thursday.

New York dropped both games in yesterday’s doubleheader, and it has allowed nine or more runs in each game in this series.

Freddy Peralta (4.83 ERA) is on the mound with a chance to stop the bleeding on Thursday night, but he and the Mets are just -112 favorites at home against the Cubbies.

Chicago has bounced back after a rough month of May, winning seven of its last 10 games, though it is still seven games out of first place in the NL Central.

Matthew Boyd (6.00 ERA) will get the ball in this game for his first start since May 3.

Let’s dive into the odds, a prop to bet and my prediction for this series finale on Thursday night.

Cubs vs. Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Cubs -1.5 (+147)
Mets +1.5 (-179)

Moneyline

Cubs: -108
Mets: -112

Total

8.5 (Over -113/Under -106)

Cubs vs. Mets Probable Pitchers

Chicago: Matthew Boyd (2-1, 6.00 ERA)
New York: Freddy Peralta (5-6, 4.83 ERA)

Cubs vs. Mets How to Watch

Date: Thursday, June 25
Time: 7:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Citi Field
How to Watch (TV): SNY, Marquee Sports Network
Cubs record: 43-37
Mets record: 34-46

Cubs vs. Mets Best MLB Prop Bets

Cubs Best MLB Prop Bet

Cubs Team Total OVER 4.5 Runs (+105)

I’m going to take a prop that goes right into my pick for this game, as I expect the Cubs to score five or more runs on Thursday night.

Chicago has nine or more runs in each game in this series, and it is averaging 4.94 runs per game in 2026 – the sixth-most in MLB.

Meanwhile, the Mets have a team ERA of 4.22, and Peralta has struggled in recent starts, allowing 18 runs in four outings in June. He’s given up four or more earned runs in four of his last six starts.

So, it wouldn’t shock me if Chicago jumps on the veteran right-hander, especially since the team has 28 hits and 29 runs in this series. New York’s bullpen (3.44 ERA) has been one of the better units in baseball, but I can’t pass up the plus-money price when it comes to this prop.

Cubs vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

In today’s MLB best bets column, I broke down why I love the OVER in this series finale:

The New York Mets and Chicago Cubs have combined for 15, 13 and 15 runs in the first three games of their series, so I’m going to take the OVER in Game 4 on Thursday night.

Chicago has lefty Matthew Boyd on the mound for just the sixth time this season, and he enters this start with a 6.00 ERA and an expected ERA of 4.28. Chicago’s offense is third in the league in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), and it’ll likely lean on that with a chance to sweep New York on the line.

The Mets have dropped five games in a row, though they have ace Freddy Peralta on the mound in this game. After a solid start to the season, Peralta regressed in June, allowing six, one and 10 runs in his last three starts.

He has a 4.83 ERA for the season and ranks in the 57th percentile in expected ERA.

Both of these teams have hit the OVER in the majority of their games, with the Cubs putting up nine or more runs in each game in this series to improve their OVER record to 43-36-1. I expect offense to be the story of the night once again on Thursday.

Pick: OVER 8.5 (-113 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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