Dallas Cowboys Win Total Projection for 2026 Season (Can the Cowboys Return to the Playoffs?)

The Dallas Cowboys had one of the most electric offenses in football in 2025, ranking fifth in the league in points per game, averaging 27.7. The issue was their defense, just as bad as their offense was good, giving up 30.1 points per game, the most in the league.

While an all-offense, no-defense approach makes for exciting football to watch, it unfortunately resulted in a 7-9-1 record, which wasn't good enough to make the playoffs. The Cowboys have now missed the playoffs in two straight seasons, winning only seven games in each of them.

The Cowboys will look to return to the postseason for the first time since 2023 this year. Let's dive into their projected win total for the 2026 campaign.

2026 Dallas Cowboys Projected Win Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

OVER 9.5 Wins (+115)
UNDER 9.5 Wins (-140)

The Cowboys' win total is set at 9.5, with the OVER set at +115 odds, which is an implied probability of 46.51% of them going 10-7 or better.

The biggest question mark for the Cowboys is going to be their defense. They've brought in a new defensive coordinator in hopes of making a difference. Christian Parker takes over the role. He's the former defensive pass game coordinator and defensive backs coach for the Philadelphia Eagles.

They're also hoping that Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark will make significant impacts on the defensive front a year after trading for them. That said, the rest of their defense leaves a lot to be desired. Their first-round draft pick, Caleb Downs, will have to make a significant impact immediately in the secondary.

The Cowboys' offense will once again be led by Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens, one of the best quarterback-wide receiver trios in the league. Javonte Williams will return as their starting running back one year after having an underrated season with them, where he averaged 4.8 yards per carry.

I think we're going to see more of the same from the Cowboys this season. Great offensive output, but a defense that can't keep the score in check. They also have to deal with the fifth-toughest schedule in the NFL, based on opponents' projected win percentages.

Dallas would have to improve its record by three wins from the previous two seasons to go over their win total in 2026. That's going to be difficult to do after a relatively quiet offseason. I'm going to sell my stock on the Cowboys heading into this year and bet the UNDER on their win total.

Pick: UNDER 9.5 Wins (-140) via DraftKings

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