Detroit Lions Win Total Projection for 2026 Season (Lions Will Benefit From League's Easiest Schedule)

It wasn't that long ago that the Detroit Lions were the laughing stock of the NFL, annually being one of the worst teams in the NFL. Then, Dan Campbell arrived and began to turn the franchise around. That's why it was out of place to feel surprised when the Lions played to a 9-8 record last season, a disappointing result based on their preseason expectations. The year before, they had the best record in the league at 15-2.

Was last year's record a blip on the radar, or is it a sign that the Lions are beginning to decline back to what they were for decades on end?

Let's dive into their projected win total for the 2026 NFL season.

2026 Detroit Lions Win Total Projection

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

OVER 10.5 Wins (-115)
UNDER 10.5 Wins (-105)

The Lions' win total is set at 10.5, with the OVER juiced to -115. That means they have an implied probability of 53.49% of finishing 11-6 or better this upcoming season.

In my NFL season betting preview, I broke down why the Lions are my pick to win the Super Bowl, which means I absolutely love them to go over their set win total of 10.5:

My pick to win Super Bowl 61 is the Detroit Lions. There are a lot of things to like about this team heading into the 2026 season. Firstly, I thought they were a lot better than their record showed last season, finishing the year third in DVOA and sixth in Net Yards per Play, the best mark amongst all teams that didn't make the postseason. This season, they get to play the easiest schedule in the NFL based on opponent projected win totals, which gives them an inside track to not only win the NFC North, but potentially capture the No. 1 seed.

I also love their move trading away David Montgomery. He has been far less effective than Jahmyr Gibbs, and the Lions' offense wasn't as good when he was in the game. Now, they can utilize Gibbs much more, which will do nothing but help their offense.

The Lions are the best bounce-back candidate in the NFL. Between their easy schedule, the metrics that show they played better than their record last year, and an improved roster, I'd be surprised if they don't string together 11+ wins. The only thing working against them is the fact that they play in a competitive NFC North, but I think we see regression from the Bears, and the Packers didn't do enough to surpass the Lions this offseason.

Give me the OVER 10.5 wins for Detroit.

Pick: OVER 10.5 Wins (-115) via DraftKings

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