Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Sunday, June 28

The Los Angeles Dodgers have opened up a nine-game lead over the San Diego Padres in the NL West heading into Sunday afternoon’s rubber match at Petco Park.

The Dodgers are favored on the road in this game with youngster Emmet Sheehan (5.32 ERA) on the mound against San Diego’s Michael King (3.33 ERA). While King’s actual ERA is pretty solid, he has some shaky advanced numbers in 2026, ranking in the 32nd percentile in expected batting average against and the 27th percentile in expected ERA.

After losing the series opener on Friday, the Dodgers bounced back with 15 runs in a commanding win on Saturday to even things up.

Can they close out the series with Sheehan on the mound, even though he was chased early by the Padres (four innings, four runs) in his last start against them?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this NL West showdown.

Dodgers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Dodgers -1.5 (+119)
Padres +1.5 (-144)

Moneyline

Dodgers: -137
Padres: +114

Total

8 (Over -107/Under -112)

Dodgers vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

Los Angeles: Emmet Sheehan (3-5, 5.32 ERA)
San Diego: Michael King (5-6, 3.33 ERA)

Dodgers vs. Padres How to Watch

Date: Sunday, June 28
Time: 4:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Petco Park
How to Watch (TV): Sportsnet Los Angeles, Padres.TV
Dodgers record: 53-30
Padres record: 43-38

Dodgers vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bets

Dodgers Best MLB Prop Bet

Michael King UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (+126)

In today’s MLB Best Bets column for SI Betting, I shared why the UNDER is the play for King when it comes to his K’s prop in this matchup:

King had 201 strikeouts in over 173 innings of work in the 2024 season, but he didn’t have nearly as much success last season (76 K’s in 73.1 innings).

In 2026, King has taken an even bigger step back, striking out just 78 batters in 92.0 innings of work, averaging 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings. This is the lowest K’s per nine of King’s career (outside of his one appearance in 2019), and I think he’s a fade candidate against this vaunted Dodgers offense.

Los Angeles is averaging just 7.9 strikeouts per game (sixth in MLB) and King has failed to clear 4.5 strikeouts in five of his last six starts. He did have nine K’s against Los Angeles back in May, but I can’t get behind King since he’s struck out just 19 batters in his last 33.2 innings.

Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

The Padres have been one of the worst offensive teams in MLB this season, ranking 30th in Weighted Runs Created Plus, OPS and runs scored.

Despite that, I’m still going to take the OVER in this series finale, as both of these pitchers have some shaky advanced numbers entering this matchup.

King ranks in the 27th percentile in expected ERA this season while Sheehan has an ERA over 5.00 and an expected ERA over 4.00. The Dodgers right-hander allowed four runs in as many innings in his last start against San Diego, which ended up being a 5-4 win for Los Angeles.

In this series, these teams have combined for eight and 18 runs, with the Dodgers hanging a 15-spot on San Diego on Saturday.

I don’t love taking a side since both of these starters have led their teams to .500 or worse records in 2026, so I’ll bet on another high-scoring game to close out this series.

Pick: OVER 8 (-107 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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