Falcons' Decision to Name Tua Tagovailoa Starter Shifts Falcons vs. Steelers Week 1 Odds

The Atlanta Falcons reportedly have finally named a starter quarterback for Week 1 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, as they'll turn to veteran Tua Tagovailoa with Michael Penix Jr. still recovering from a torn ACL that he suffered last November.

Sources: Tua Tagovailoa has been named the Falcons’ starting quarterback for next Sunday’s regular-season opener in Pittsburgh vs. the Steelers. pic.twitter.com/Ak3RKFF5dH
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 7, 2026

Tagovailoa did not impress in the preseason, but Atlanta is trusting the experience of the former first-round pick since Penix wasn't cleared for 11-on-11 activity until Aug. 22. It makes sense that the Falcons don't want to rush Penix back, especially since he has a lengthy injury history dating back to his college days.

The Falcons are a long shot in the odds to win the Super Bowl (+13000), and their odds made a slight move for Week 1 now that Tagovailoa officially will be under center.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Falcons +3.5 (-118)
Steelers -3.5 (-102)

Moneyline

Falcons: +154
Steelers: -185

Total

42.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

The Steelers opended up as three-point favorites in this game, but they moved to 3.5-point favorites a week ahead of kickoff. The move to start Tagovailoa may have shifted this line half a point, but the Falcons are still -118 to cover this spread on Sunday.

There's a chance this spread could end up settling at three, but 78 percent of the moneyline bets and 58 percent of the spread bets at DraftKings are on the Steelers. Pittsburgh was a playoff team in the 2025 season, and it has a much more solid foundation with Aaron Rodgers returning at quarterback.

Tagovailoa struggled in the 2025 season, leading to the Miami Dolphins cutting bait with the former top-five pick. He threw for just 2,660 yards, 20 scores and 15 picks while leading Miami to a 6-8 record in his 14 starts. Tagovailoa has only played a full 17-game season once in his NFL career, so it's very possible that Penix will play at some point early in the 2026 season.

Atlanta is projected to win 7.5 games in the 2026 season with the UNDER (-140) set as the favorite. If Tagovailoa can get off to a hot start, the Falcons have a shot in the NFC South, but the betting market seems to be down on the former Alabama star after his 2025 season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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