Falcons vs. Packers Best NFL Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football in Week 3 (Bet on Christian Watson)

Thursday Night Football in Week 3 features an interesting NFC matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers.

The 2026 season hasn’t started well for either of these teams, as the Falcons have played Cooper Rush and Jack Strand at quarterback while Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa deal with injuries. Penix is set to return in Week 3, giving the Falcons a minor boost in the odds.

Meanwhile, the Packers blew a lead against Minnesota in Week 1, and they needed overtime to get past the New York Jets in Week 2. With Josh Jacobs on the Commissioner’s Exempt List, the Pack are limited in the running game, putting a ton of pressure on Jordan Love early in the season.

Both of these teams have struggled on offense in the 2026 season, with the Falcons posting the worst EPA/Play on that side of the ball in the league.

Still, there are some intriguing playmakers on both sides with Bijan Robinson, Christian Watson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Matthew Golden. That could open up some opportunities for bettors to cash in on player props, especially if they want to avoid taking a side with the quarterback carousel currently going on in Atlanta.

I’m targeting three players in the prop market on Thursday night, including a play for Watson.

Best NFL Prop Bets for Falcons vs. Packers

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Christian Watson OVER 4.5 Receptions (-122)
Bijan Robinson UNDER 78.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
MarShawn Lloyd UNDER 28.5 Rushing Yards (-111)

Christian Watson OVER 4.5 Receptions (-122)

Christian Watson has emerged as the clear No. 1 target in this passing game through two weeks, catching 10 of his 19 targets for 188 yards and three scores.

Watson has six catches (on eight targets) and four grabs (on 11 targets) to open 2026, and he could see an even bigger role after Jayden Reed (neck) was injured in Week 2.

Jordan Love hasn’t exactly been efficient throwing the ball this season,completing less than 60 percent of his throws, but Watson played nearly 90 percent of the team’s snaps in Week 2 and has one more target than Matthew Golden through two games.

I think this prop is a pretty solid value against an Atlanta defense that allowed five catches for 101 yards to Tetairoa McMillan and eight catches for 66 yards to Jalen Coker in Week 2.

Bijan Robinson UNDER 78.5 Rushing Yards (-111)

This is a tough matchup for Robinson and the Falcons, as the Packers are second in the NFL in yards per carry allowed (2.9) this season. Green Bay also ranks sixth in the NFL in EPA/Rush.

Robinson carried the ball 21 times in Week 1 and 16 times in Week 2, picking up 83 and 72 rushing yards in those matchups. He’s averaging 4.2 yards per carry, but the Falcons also love to involve the former first-round pick in the passing game.

Since Green Bay’s run defense has been so strong, I wouldn't be shocked if the Falcons use Robinson more as a receiver, especially after he caught eight passes for 90 yards in Week 1.

The return of Penix should also allow Kevin Stefanski to get more creative with his playcalling on Thursday night. I think Bijan has a strong game, it just may not all come on the ground.

MarShawn Lloyd UNDER 28.5 Rushing Yards (-111)

Another running back to fade?

Packers running back Marshawn Lloyd lost a ton of snaps in Week 2, as he went from playing 44.1 percent of the offensive plays in Week 1 to just 27.1 against New York. LLoyd had six carries for 20 yards and a score against the Jets, and now he has a tough date with this Atlanta front seven.

For as bad as the Falcons have been this season, they are a great run defense, sitting tied for second with the Packers in yards per carry allowed (2.9). They’re also second in the league in EPA/Rush.

With Lloyd splitting time with Kaleb Johnson and Chris Brooks, I think this line may be a little high on Thursday. After all, the Packers running back has just 19 carries in two games, averaging 3.0 yards per rush.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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