FAU vs. Florida Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 1

The Florida Gators are entering a new era in Week 1, as head coach Jon Sumrall takes over a program that struggled in the SEC in 2025.

Sumrall has experience in the College Football Playoff – leading Tulane there last season – and he should rejuvenate a team that was unable to compete at the top of the conference under Billy Napier.

The Gators open the 2026 season at home against Florida Atlantic University, and they’re favored by nearly four touchdowns. FAU was just 4-8 in the 2026 season (same record as Florida) in a much weaker conference (the AAC). Sumrall has a lot of experience against the Owls since Tulane won the AAC last season.

DJ Lagway is no longer in Florida, paving the way for transfer Aaron Philo to start. He’s only attempted 102 passes in his collegiate career, so there could be some growing pains early on in the 2026 season.

Let’s take a look at the betting odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this in-state matchup in Week 1.

FAU vs. Florida Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

FAU +26.5 (-108)
Florida -26.5 (-112)

Moneyline

FAU: +1500
Florida: -3600

Total

59.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

FAU vs. Florida How to Watch

Date: Saturday, Sept. 5
Time: 7:45 p.m. EST
Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
How to Watch (TV): SEC Network
FAU record: 0-0
Florida record: 0-0

FAU vs. Florida Key Player to Watch

Caden Veltkamp, Quarterback, FAU

Senior quarterback Cade Veltkamp started in the 2024 season at Western Kentucky, throwing for 3,108 yards, 25 scores and 10 picks. He then transferred to FAU, where he attempted 515 passes in the 2025 season, throwing for 3,641 yards, 24 scores and 17 picks.

Veltkamp can really sling it, but his turnover numbers are extremely worrisome, especially going into this game against an SEC defense.

Even with the 6-foot-5 quarterback throwing for nearly 4,000 yards last season, FAU struggled in the AAC, going 4-8 overall and 3-5 in conference play. The Owls are hoping Veltkamp continues to develop heading into his fifth collegiate season.

FAU vs. Florida Prediction and Pick

After leading Tulane to the College Football Playoff last year, Sumrall has his work cut out for him in Florida, which is hoping to return to national prominence after a 4-8 season in 2025.

If there’s one thing about this Gators program, it’s that it can win at home, going 4-2 at “The Swamp” in the 2025 season. Even with a relatively inexperienced quarterback in Philo, I believe Sumrall will be able to scheme this Gators team to a win in Week 1.

FAU really struggled defensively last season (105th in EPA/Play) and was 100th in the country in net EPA/Play.

Veltkamp’s return is helpful for the offense, but I question if he’ll be able to take care of the ball against an SEC opponent.

Even in a down year, the Gators were 45th in the country in EPA/Play.

FAU was just 3-5 in AAC play and won four games as well last season. I don’t expect it to pull off an upset in a hostile road environment.

Pick: Florida -26.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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