FedEx St. Jude Championship Picks, Props, Predictions: Betting Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas

The SI Golf betting panel hit its second straight outright last week, with yours truly, Brian Giuffra, cashing the +7200 ticket on Michael Brennan. That comes after Brian Kirshner hit Michael Thorbjorsen +4200 at Rocket. Let’s keep that hot streak going into the playoffs.

The SI Golf betting panel features SI Betting insider Iain MacMillan, Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, Inside Sports Network Betting analyst Brad Thomas, The Model Maniac Byron Lindeque, FanSided content director Cody Williams and Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each Wednesday, we post our betting picks for outright and longshot winners, first-round leader, our favorite prop bet and a final score prediction.

The three-week FedEx Cup Playoffs kick off at TPC Southwind with the FedEx St. Jude Championship. This is a tough course featuring a ton of water; 11 holes have it in play. A double bogey is one mistake away. Accuracy off the tee is, therefore, paramount. Ultimately, the biggest common denominator between past winners is elite approach play. Think: ballstrikers and target golf.

Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite at +500 on FanDuel. Rory McIlroy (+1000), Xander Schauffele (+2000) and past-winner Hideki Matsuyama (+2200) follow. Rookie sensation Jackson Koivun is +4000. He was the last person in the field of the Top 70 FedEx Cup standings.

Brennan was my fourth outright for the panel this year. BK has two. Model Maniac hit a longshot earlier this year. We have seven FRL cashes this year. Let’s finish the season strong with a few more! Below are our picks for this week with a breakdown on each one below the graphic.

expert FedEx St. Jude Championship picks. — FedEx St. Jude Championship picks. | Sports Illustrated

Outright

Iain MacMillan: Scottie Scheffler +550 (FanDuel)

I apologize for being the square that bets on Scottie Scheffler, but his price has risen to a point that I have to bet on him, especially in a 70-man field. Despite having just one win on the season, his numbers still hold up, gaining significant strokes in all four major areas. He has fallen on the bad side of variance, and it’s time for the ball to bounce his way. He leads the field in virtually every single metric you can find.

Brian Kirschner: Justin Thomas +3400 (DraftKings)

Happy to take a chance on a two-time major champion, who has shown he can win and contend at TPC Southwind, at these odds. JT is back from injury and has been playing some solid golf. JT has found something with the driver, as he gained almost 5 strokes to the field last week. He is a great Bermuda player and should be in contention this week and solidify his spot on the Presidents Cup team.

Brad Thomas: Hideki Matsuyama +2200 (DraftKings)

I’ll probably bet Hideki Matsuyama for the rest of the season. His game is in incredible shape right now. Typically, when Hideki is playing poorly, his driver is all over the place. A course like this naturally wouldn’t be a great fit. That’s not the case right now. He’s hitting his driver tremendously well, he’s already won here and, realistically, he’s only a putter away from dominating. I also don’t think the putter is going to matter quite as much here as some people think. This is a course where you want to hit fairways and be really good on approach, and that’s exactly what Hideki is doing right now.

Byron Lindeque: Matt Fitzpatrick +2700 (FanDuel)

Matt Fitz this course perfectly, ranking #1 this week in the Micro (course fit) Model. He is the third-best overall iron player in this field, ranking 12th from 200+, 8th 150-200 and 22nd from 100-150. Knowing he is the seventh most accurate driver of the ball in this field is another great reason to bet him this week. Combining his driving accuracy with his stellar iron play, he is the third-best ball striker for this golf course. He also leads the field in strokes gained putting on Bermuda grass, having won all three of his tournaments on this surface (Zurich, RBC Heritage and Valspar). Moving to the course history side, Fitz has had finishes of 5th and 18th in his last four years here since becoming a playoff event. He also has a 6th and 4th in 2020 and 2019 when this was a WGC event.

Cody Williams: Sam Burns +2200 (DraftKings)

In all honesty, I’m just trying to keep it as simple as possible with Sam Burns this week. He’s second in SG: Approach, fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green and third in SG: Putting on Bermuda in this field over the last 24 rounds. While his positional golf off the tee isn’t perfect, I’ll take that level of overall ball-striking and putting as a combo to be a real threat, which is especially true given a T5 here in 2024 and some overall solid course history.

Brian Giuffra: Collin Morikawa +2800 (DraftKings)

Morikawa was red hot on approach earlier in the year before a back injury derailed what looked to be a potentially monstrous season. He regained much of that form in his last three events: T17 at the U.S. Open, 3rd at Travelers, and T18 at the Open. He remains accurate OTT. His putting has been better. The short game can be spotty, but that doesn’t concern me as much this week. He’ll win based on his tee-to-green performance. He has a T5 at this event and has been T22 the last two years. I feel like he’s going to finish this year on a high.

Longshot

Iain MacMillan: Ryan Fox +15500 (DraftKings)

All Ryan Fox did the last time he teed it up was win the British Open in one of the most clutch finishes we've seen in recent major history. Despite that, he has some of the longest odds in the field. It's not like his win was his only strong result this season. He had a couple of other impressive finishes, including a T7 finish at The Genesis Invitational, an elevated event. Based on his last performance alone, I'm willing to take a shot on him at 155-1.

Brian Kirschner: Nico Echavarria +175000 (DraftKings)

Nico played really well for us last week as a triple-digit long shot at the Wyndham. I see no reason not to go back at these odds. Nico finished 12th last week and has shown that he can contend and win on tight Bermuda golf courses. There has been a lot of crossover with PGA National here, so who better to back than the winner there earlier this year.

Brad Thomas: Jacob Bridgeman +13500 (ProphetX)

Insane price. Bridgeman has won at a fairways and greens course already. His game is slowly creeping up, too.

Byron Lindeque: Russell Henley +4000 (DraftKings)

The fact that the 5th ranked golfer in the world can be squeezed into the long shot grey zone at 40-1 is all you need to know about why we are betting on Henley. He ranks #6 in my model and is the most accurate driver of the ball off the tee, with finishes of 17th (‘25) and 6th (‘23). He just finished T9 at the Open Championship and is looking for his fourth consecutive top-20 this week. We just need to figure out how to chip again…

Cody Williams: Jacob Bridgeman +9400 (DraftKings)

Most everything I’m targeting at TPC Southwind this week is predicated upon ball-striking. The lone exception to that is a look at Bridgeman as a longshot. He’s 31st in SG: Approach and 37th in SG: Tee-to-Green over the last 24 rounds out of the 70-man field, but his mid-irons have actually been Top 20 level and he’s sixth in SG: Putting on Bermuda surfaces. Add in a solid T17 last year at this event, and I think he has the legs to make some noise if he just putts his face off.

Brian Giuffra: Russell Henley +4000 (DraftKings)

If you’ve followed this column, you know I’ve pushed the idea of what a longshot should be. In a full-field event, I think that’s +5000. In a 70-person field, I’m dropping that to +4000, which, by the way, is a 2.4% implied probability, certainly a longshot in my eyes. Regardless, I’m picking Henley because he has the game to win here: accurate OTT, great putter, spike approach player. He was T6 here in 2023 and T17 last year.

First-Round Leader

Iain MacMillan: Sam Burns +2800 (DraftKings)

With TPC Southwind being a Par 70, scoring on Par 4s is going to be important, and it's none other than Burns who is second on the PGA Tour in Par 4 scoring at 3.95, behind only Scheffler (3.88). He's also fourth in the field in total strokes gained over the past three months. Let’s bet on him to get off to a hot start on Thursday.

Brian Kirschner: Collin Morikawa +3200 (DraftKings)

Collin got out to a great start at The Open. Although he didn’t finish anything special that week, I really think he is trending in the right direction. This is a great course for him that rewards really strong iron play and accurate driving.

Brad Thomas: Cam Young +3000 (DraftKings)

Last week was an insane week for Cam Young. He led the field ion approach and was never really in contention for a top-20 finish. Young has also been a fast starter. Let’s start fast and go low.

Byron Lindeque: Tommy Fleetwood +2800 (DraftKings)

Fleetwood’s best split of the four is in R1, gaining +2.3 strokes per round on Thursdays, which is the best in this field, +0.2 better than Scottie Scheffler (#2). Fleetwood has two 3rd place finishes at TPC Southwind in the last three years and is looking for his seventh consecutive top 14 finish after T4s at the Memorial and the Open.

Cody Williams: Tom Kim +4400 (DraftKings)

Point blank, I don’t believe that Tom Kim is putting nearly consistently enough to win the FedEx St. Jude. Having said that, I do believe he’s striking it well enough to end up in the lead after Round 1, especially if he finds a hot putter. He leads this field in SG: Approach and Scrambling over the last 24 rounds, as well as being 10th in Fairways Gained. That’s the right ball-striking mix for at least one stellar round, and that’s worthy of a FRL swing in my book.

Brian Giuffra: Viktor Hovland +3600 (DraftKings)

Hovland will likely be a popular pick to win this week based on his past success here. His driving accuracy has been an issue this season, however, and on this course, it will likely catch up to him at some point. I’m hoping that’s not in Round 1. Hovland remains elite on approach and can spike OTT and with the putter. That’s what we need in Round 1. T2 here in 2024 and T13 the year before, he knows the course and likes it. Let’s start the week with our third FRL hit this season.

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: J.J. Spaun Top 20 +134 (DraftKings)

J.J. Spaun should feel plenty of confidence this week when he returns to an event he finished runner-up at last season. He's seventh in the field in strokes-gained tee to green over the past three months. Whether or not he can compete this week will come down to his putting, but as we've seen from him over the past two years, if he gets the putter rolling, he'll be in contention.

Brian Kirschner: Patrick Cantlay Top 20 +100 (DraftKings)

I don’t know if Cantlay has any chance to actually win this week, but he is certainly trending in the right direction. He played great at the Rocket Classic, finishing T8, and hit the ball extremely well with his irons. He is having a solid season and needs some more good finishes to make the Presidents Cup teams and I think he plays great at a spot he once lost in a playoff in.

Brad Thomas: Sam Burns Top 10 incl. ties +170 (DraftKings)

Burns is dialed. What’s been incredible about how he’s playing is everything is sustainable. Driving it well and knocking down putts, especially on Bermuda.

Byron Lindeque: Russell Henley Top 20 +110 (BetMGM)

The only person in this field with more top 20 finishes than Russell Henley (67%) is Scottie Scheffler (86%). Henley’s lack of first page leaderboard presence has seen his outright number drift close to long range (as mentioned above) and as a result we continue to get plus-money odds on his best market. He has three top-20 finishes entering the week and will be looking for his third top-20 finish at the St. Jude in four starts.

Cody Williams: Viktor Hovland Top 10 incl. ties +275 (BetMGM)

One thing about me, I’m never going to relinquish my beliefs, especially when they continue to be backed by data. That’s doubly true for Viktor Hovland. He burned everyone at The Open, but the numbers still say that he’s fourth in SG: Approach, 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green, sneakily seventh in Scrambling and top two in each 25-yard bucket from 125-200 yards on approach proximity over the last 24 rounds. Oh, he’s also sixth in Fairways Gained and has gone T20, T13, T2 and T32 at TPC Southwind the last four years. I think he’s primed for a pop week at the FedEx St. Jude in this form.

Brian Giuffra: Collin Morikawa Top 10 incl. ties +250 (FanDuel)

After a three-week run of hitting my prop bet by betting my top pick to finish Top 20, I missed on Alex Fitzpatrick last week, but hey, I still nailed the longshot outright! Let’s stick with the formula that worked last year and has had some success this year. The only change is I’m pushing it to Top 10 plus ties as I believe Morikawa will be near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday. He had six straight Top 10s during that outstanding start and had the 3rd at Travelers too.

Winning Score:

Iain MacMillan: -18
Brian Kirschner: -16
Brad Thomas: -15
Byron Lindeque: -19
Cody Williams: -17
Brian Giuffra: -16

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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