Fernando Mendoza Rookie Stat Projections: Oddmakers Expect Raiders' Rookie to Thrive

Fernando Mendoza has -230 odds of throwing 15+ touchdowns in his rookie season. | Candice Ward-Imagn Images

The Heisman Trophy winner and college football national champion, Fernando Mendoza, has been selected by the Las Vegas Raiders with the first overall selection in the 2026 NFL Draft.

There's no question about how strong a season he had with the Indiana Hoosiers, but will his game translate to the NFL level?

Now that we're in the thick of the offseason, DraftKings Sportsbook has released odds for how Mendoza will perform in his rookie season. Let's take a look.

Fernando Mendoza Rookie Stat Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Fernando Mendoza Rookie Passing Yards

• 3000+ yards (+135)
• 3500+ yards (+275)
• 4000+ yards (+700)
• 4500+ yards (+1400)

Fernando Mendoza Rookie Passing Touchdowns

• 15+ touchdowns (-230)
• 20+ touchdowns (-105)
• 25+ touchdowns (+190)
• 30+ touchdowns (+400)

If you think these numbers seem low, remember that Kirk Cousins is expected to start the season at quarterback for the Raiders. With that being said, Mendoza will likely step in at some point in the season unless Cousins is leading the Raiders to a winning record.

If Mendoza can reach any milestone listed above while playing less than a full season, it should be considered a success. Remember, last year's No. 1 pick, Cam Ward, threw for just 3,189 yards and 15 touchdowns despite playing in all 17 games for the Titans. With Mendoza not expected to play a full season, oddsmakers are still setting his odds at -230 for him to throw at least 15+ touchdowns and -105 odds on him throwing for 20+ scores.

Mendoza is also second on the odds list to be named the Offensive Rookie of the Year at +400, behind only Jeremiyah Love of the Arizona Cardinals, who comes in at +320 on that odds list. He would be the third quarterback in four years to win the award after C.J. Stroud in 2023 and Jayden Daniels in 2024.

Mendoza recently sat down with Sports Illustrated to talk about Tom Brady's advice, his "Step Brothers" video with Cousins, and more.

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