Florida State vs. Alabama Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 3

The Alabama Crimson Tide are sitting in the No. 10 spot in the latest AP Poll, and they’re favored at home in a crucial Week 3 matchup with the Florida State Seminoles.

Florida State upset Alabama last season, yet the Crimson Tide rebounded to make the College Football Playoff. Now, with Keelon Russell leading the way at quarterback, Alabama would love to start the season 3-0 before a tough SEC schedule that features four games in a row later this season against current top-25 teams.

Florida State is 1-1 through two weeks this season, losing to SMU in Week 1 before having a bye in Week 2. The Seminoles won their season opener in Week 0 against New Mexico State by 17 points.

Alabama dominated East Carolina in Week 1, but it trailed at the half in Week 2 against Kentucky before scoring 32 unanswered points. Can Kalen DeBoer’s team avoid a slow start on Saturday?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this ACC-SEC showdown on Sept. 19.

Florida State vs. Alabama Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Florida State +20.5 (-108)
Alabama -20.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Florida State: +900
Alabama: -1600

Total

49.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Florida State vs. Alabama How to Watch

Date: Saturday, Sept. 19
Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Bryant-Denny Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ABC
Florida State record: 1-1
Alabama record: 2-0

Florida State vs. Alabama Key Player to Watch

Keelon Russell, Quarterback, Alabama

Sophomore quarterback Keelon Russell is looking to cement himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC, but he hasn’t exactly thrived as a passer through two weeks.

Russell is completing 64.2 percent of his passes, and he threw two picks in the win over Kentucky last week. He’s averaging 222.0 yards per game and only has one passing TD for the Crimson Tide.

There’s a long season ahead for Russell to improve, but this is a tough matchup with a Florida State program that upset Alabama in 2025.

Russell has done some damage with his legs, rushing for 77 yards and a score in two games, but the Crimson Tide are going to need a much better showing from him throwing the ball than he had against Kentucky in Week 2.

Florida State vs. Alabama Prediction and Pick

Florida State nearly upset a ranked SMU team in Week 1, picking off Kevin Jennings twice (though he threw for 430 yards) in a 27-24 loss.

The Seminoles have run the ball really well in 2026 (5.0 yards per carry), but they’re facing an Alabama defense that held Kentucky to 2.0 yards per carry in Week 2.

Alabama matches up pretty well with the Seminoles, but Russell’s struggles passing the ball are a concern in this matchup. SMU has a pretty explosive offense with Jennings at the helm, yet it was unable to pull away in that Week 1 matchup, needing a 10-point fourth to secure the win.

I think this spread is a little ambitious, especially since Alabama was on upset alert in the first half of Week 2.

I’ll take the points with the Seminoles on Saturday afternoon.

Pick: Florida State +20.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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