Florida vs. Missouri Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 5

Are the Florida Gators back?

Jon Sumrall’s team picked up a massive win at home in Week 4 against a top-five opponent in the Ole Miss Rebels, and now it’s favored on the road in Week 5 against another ranked SEC opponent in the No. 25 Missouri Tigers.

Florida (No. 8 in the country) is undefeated to open this season, beating Ole Miss, Auburn, Campbell and FAU. Three of those wins have come by at least 24 points, and the Gators are set as 5.5-point favorites in Missouri on Saturday afternoon.

The Tigers are coming off their first loss of the season at the hands of Mississippi State and star quarterback Kamario Taylor, even though quarterback Austin Simmons threw for 295 yards in that matchup. Simmons is a very fringe Heisman contender, throwing for 947 yards and 11 scores (no picks) in four games. He’s completed 65.4 percent of his passes for a Missouri offense that is tied for 35th in offensive success rate on pass plays but outside the top 100 in success rate on run plays.

This is a tough matchup – even at home – for the Tigers, as Florida is No. 1 in the country in EPA/Play on offense, posting the No. 1 EPA/Pass and the No. 5 EPA/Rush in the country. Sumrall has come in and completely changed things in his first season at the helm, and one has to wonder if the NFL will come calling for the Gators coach in the near future.

The Gators are firmly in the College Football Playoff conversation, and they could build their resume with a road win against a quality SEC opponent on Saturday.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this afternoon matchup on Oct. 3.

Florida vs. Missouri Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Florida -5.5 (-105)
Missouri +5.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Florida: -205
Missouri: +170

Total

56.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Florida vs. Missouri How to Watch

Date: Saturday, Oct. 3
Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Memorial Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ABC
Florida record: 4-0
Missouri record: 3-1

Florida vs. Missouri Key Player to Watch

Jadan Baugh, Running Back, Florida

Gators running back Jadan Baugh has put together a monster start to the season, averaging 7.2 yards per carry, turning 83 rushes into 600 yards and 11 scores. He and Duke Clark have formed a dominant one-two punch in the backfield, helping Florida rank No. 5 in EPA/Rush and No. 18 is run play success rate.

Baugh has just two receptions this season, but he’s averaging over 20 carries per game and should have a heavy workload on Saturday against a Missouri defense that is just 52nd in the country in EPA/Rush in 2026.

Last season, Baugh ran for 1,170 yards and eight scores. He’s already eclipsed that touchdown mark with ease, and he should clear the yardage total as well if he comes anywhere near keeping his current pace.

Florida vs. Missouri Prediction and Pick

I’ll admit, I was skeptical about the Gators heading into Week 4, as they had barely hung on to beat Auburn in their first SEC matchup.

Despite that, Sumrall’s group proved that they belong in the conversation for the College Football Playoff, blowing out an Ole Miss team that had just beaten LSU the week before.

So, I don’t mind oddsmakers setting the Gators as road favorites in this game.

Florida’s defense has been a little shaky (outside the top 100 in EPA/Play), but a lot of that has to do with the team ranking 130th in EPA/Rush. Missouri hasn’t run the ball well in 2026, ranking 107th in EPA/Rush and 104th in run play success rate.

A lot has fallen on Simmons this season, and the Tigers dropped their only real test (against Mississippi State) in Week 4.

The Florida offense is one of the best in the country with Baugh leading the way, ranking No. 1 in EPA/Pass and No. 5 in EPA/Rush. I think that’s going to end up being too much for this Missouri team to handle on Saturday afternoon.

Pick: Florida -5.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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