Frances Tiafoe vs. Alex Michelsen Prediction, Odds for U.S. Open Quarterfinals

No. 11-seed Frances Tiafoe has knocked off back-to-back ranked opponents, including No. 7-seed Daniil Medvedev in Round 4 to reach yet another U.S. Open quarterfinal.

The American will take on another American on Tuesday in Alex Michelsen, who has four straight wins in straight sets – by far his best showing at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in his career.

Tiafoe and Michelsen have met twice in their careers, and the veteran Tiafoe has come out on top both times. He’s favored in this quarterfinal match, but oddsmakers are giving Michelsen a real chance after he knocked off the No. 16 seed and the No. 27 seed on his way to the quarterfinals.

Can Tiafoe come through to reach his third semifinal in five years?

Let’s take a look at the odds, each player’s performance in the U.S. Open and my prediction for Tuesday’s match.

Frances Tiafoe vs. Alex Michelsen Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Frances Tiafoe: -156
Alex Michelsen: +127

Total

40.5 (Over -115/Under -130)

Frances Tiafoe vs. Alex Michelsen How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, Sept. 8
Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN2

Frances Tiafoe vs. Alex Michelsen History and U.S. Open Performance

Tuesday’s match will be the third time that Tiafoe and Michelsen have squared off in their respective careers. Tiafoe won their first match in 2024 in straight sets on a hard court and also took their second match in straight sets on clay in 2025.

They have not faced off since, but Tiafoe has been better in Grand Slams in 2026, as Michelsen has two first-round exits and one third-round exit to his name.

Frances Tiafoe

The No. 11 seed in the U.S. Open, Tiafoe needed five sets to get out of the first round, but he has won three straight matches in striaght sets.

Tiafoe took down No. 7 Daniil Medvedev in Round 4, and he’s eyeing one of his best-ever showings at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center over the last four years.

There’s no doubt that Tiafoe has played the U.S. Open better than any Grand Slam event in his career, which makes him an intriguing option to advance against Michelsen in the quarterfinals.

Tiafoe has four quarterfinal appearances and two semifinal appearances in his U.S. Open career, and he could add to that semifinal number with a win on Tuesday.

Alex Michelsen

What a run it has been for Michelsen in the 2026 U.S. Open.

After winning just two U.S. Open matches in his first three tries – never making it out of the second round – he’s won four straight matches in straight sets, knocking off No. 16-seed Brandon Nakashima in Round 2 and No. 27-seed Tomás Martín Etcheverry in Round 4.

Michelsen’s best-ever finish at a Grand Slam was reaching the fourth round of the 2025 Australian Open, so this is going to end as a career-best for him no matter the outcome on Tuesday.

Frances Tiafoe vs. Alex Michelsen Prediction and Pick

Let’s be honest, if this match had been set for the quarterfinals before the tournament, Tiafoe would be a much bigger favorite.

The 28-year-old had some struggles in Round 1 against Martin Damm Jr., but he has not dropped a single set since despite having to play the No. 22 and the No. 7 seeds in this tournament.

Now, Michelsen deserves a lot of credit for his run in the 2026 U.S. Open as well. The 22-year-old has not lost a single set, but he also hasn’t faced anyone higher than Nakashima.

In addition to that, Michelsen is in uncharted territory. This is his first-ever quarterfinal appearance in a Grand Slam, and he had only won two U.S. Open matches in three appearances coming into the 2026 tournament.

So, can we really trust him in this matchup? I think this moneyline price has overvalued the 22-year-old a little.

Tiafoe has beaten Michelsen twice – once on clay, once on a hard court – and has not lost a set against him.

The No. 11 seed has shown time and time again that he rises to the occasion at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, and I don’t expect this quarterfinal appearance to be any different.

Tiafoe is the clear bet to make as a -156 favorite.

Pick: Frances Tiafoe Moneyline (-156 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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