Guardians vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, Aug. 6

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the series finale between the New York Mets and Cleveland Guardians on Wednesday.

The New York Mets are favored with pitcher David Peterson on the mound on Wednesday. / Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images

Can the New York Mets avoid a sweep at the hands of the Cleveland Guardians on Wednesday afternoon?

New York has dropped three games in a row and seven of its last 10 to fall 2.5 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East, but it’ll have All-Star left-hander David Peterson on the mound to stop the bleeding on Wednesday.

He’ll take on Guardians right-hander Gavin Williams (3.33 ERA), who may have a better ERA than he should based on some of his advanced metrics in 2025. 

As a result, the best betting sites have the Mets favored at home in this matchup. 

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this matinee matchup at Citi Field in New York. 

Guardians vs. Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Guardians +1.5 (-158)
• Mets -1.5 (+129)

Moneyline

• Guardians: +139
• Mets: -170

Total

• 7.5 (Over -115/Under -106)

Guardians vs. Mets Probable Pitchers

• Cleveland: Gavin Williams (6-4, 3.33 ERA)
• New York: David Peterson (7-4, 2.83 ERA)

Guardians vs. Mets How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, Aug. 6
• Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Citi Field
• How to Watch (TV): MLB Network, SNY, CLEG
• Guardians record: 58-55
• Mets record: 63-51

Guardians vs. Mets Best MLB Prop Bets

Mets Best MLB Prop Bet

• Juan Soto UNDER 1.5 Total Bases (-170)

This is a tough matchup for Soto, as he’s 0-for-3 in his career against Williams and is hitting just .190 over the last two weeks of action.

Williams – despite some concerning underlying metrics – has been tough on left-handed hitters this season, allowing a batting average of just .136 in the 2025 season. Lefties have just 11 total extra-base hits against Williams in his 22 appearances.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see Soto go without a knock on Wednesday afternoon. 

Guardians vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best MLB best column – Walk-Off Wagers – why I’m trusting Peterson and the Mets to lead this game early:

David Peterson and the New York Mets have lost three games in a row and seven of their last 10 to fall 2.5 games back of the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East.

However, I’m backing them to lead early – and potentially win this game – on Wednesday afternoon.

Peterson has been really solid in 2025, earning an All-Star nod while posting a 2.83 ERA.

New York is 12-9 in his starts, and Peterson has not allowed more than two runs in a single start since the beginning of July.

I think he has a major advantage over Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams, who has a 3.33 ERA, but he ranks in the 39th percentile in expected ERA (4.15) this season.

On top of that, Cleveland is dead last in MLB in batting average (22nd against lefties) and just 26th in runs scored this season.

I’m far from sold on the Guardians getting to Peterson early, so I’ll back the Mets to lead while both starters should still be in the game. 

Pick: Mets First 5 Innings Moneyline (-166 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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