Heat vs. Warriors Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, Jan. 19

Are the Golden State Warriors starting to get hot?

Steph Curry and company have won seven of their last 10 games and three in a row, pulling to within striking distance of the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference.

Golden State has been an elite team at Chase Center, going 16-6, and it’s favored there once again on Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Day. The Warriors host Bam Adebayo and the Miami Heat in the ninth and final game on MLK Day, and Miami is coming off one of its best wins of the season.

The Heat upset the Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday, and they’re now two games over .500 heading into this matchup. However, the Heat have been awful on the road (7-13), which is a big reason why they remain in the play-in tournament picture in the Eastern Conference.

Can Miami pull off another upset against a Western Conference playoff contender?

Let’s take a look at the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for Monday’s contest.

Heat vs. Warriors Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Heat +5.5 (-108)
Warriors -5.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Heat: +180
Warriors: -218

Total

238.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Heat vs. Warriors How to Watch

Date: Monday, Jan. 19
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Chase Center
How to Watch (TV): NBC Sports Bay Area, FanDuel Sports Network (Local)
Heat record: 22-20
Warriors record: 24-19

Heat vs. Warriors Injury Reports

Heat Injury Report

Tyler Herro – out
Vladislav Goldin – out
Jaime Jaquez Jr. – probable
Nikola Jovic – available
Pelle Larsson – available
Davion Mitchell – probable
Terry Rozier – out
Jahmir Young – out

Warriors Injury Report

Seth Curry – out
De’Anthony Melton – out
Gui Santos – out
Draymond Green – probable

Heat vs. Warriors Best NBA Prop Bets

Warriors Best NBA Prop Bet

Jimmy Butler OVER 0.5 3-Pointers Made (-182)

In today’s best NBA prop bets at SI Betting, I shared why Butler is worth a look against his former team:

This season, Butler is shooting 38.1 percent from beyond the arc on 2.3 attempts per game, but he's made at least one shot from deep in 20 of his 37 games.

The Golden State Warriors star has made a 3-pointer in six of his seven appearances in January, attempting at least two shots from beyond the arc in six of those games as well.

While this isn't a typical area to target Butler, I do think this is a good matchup against a Miami team that is 21st in the NBA in opponent 3s made per game. The Heat play at a fast pace, so there should be a ton of possessions on both sides in this matchup.

Butlers' familiarity with the Heat may also help him in this game, as Miami is likely willing to give the star forward more jumpers since he's not known to be a volume 3-point shooter.

Heat vs. Warriors Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I trust Golden State to cover at home:

The Golden State Warriors are rolling right now, winning seven of their last 10 games and three in a row heading into Monday’s matchup with Miami.

Jimmy Butler is expected to be back in action after missing Saturday’s win over Charlotte, and that’s a huge boost for the Warriors. Golden State has a 16-6 record at home this season, posting some impressive ATS numbers at Chase Center as well:

Warriors at home: 13-9 ATS, +7.7 scoring margin
Warriors as home favorites: 12-7 ATS, +10.5 scoring margin

The Heat have been decent against the spread on the road – 10-7 against the number as road underdogs – but they’ve won just seven of 20 games outright. I think that sets up well for Golden State with this spread set inside two possessions.

The Heat are without Tyler Herro in this matchup, which may make it harder for them to compete offensively.

After a great start on offense this season, the Heat have slipped to 19th in the league in offensive rating. I don’t think that’ll get it done against a Warriors team that is sixth in defensive rating and one of the best home teams in the league.

Pick: Warriors -5.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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