How to Bet the New England Patriots: Expect Significant Super Bowl Hangover

The New England Patriots had a dream season in 2025, winning the AFC East and turning that into an AFC Championship Game victory. They fell one game short, losing to the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl 60.

Despite the heartbreak, the Patriots have MVP runner-up Drake Maye as their quarterback, Coach of the Year winner Mike Vrabel on the sideline, and a roster that welcomed A.J. Brown in the offseason. That means they're poised to once again be one of the best teams in the AFC this season, right? Not so fast.

Let's take a look at their full list of odds for the 2026 season.

2026 New England Patriots Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

To Win Super Bowl: +1600
To Win AFC: +760
To Win AFC East: +125
To Make Playoffs: -225
To Miss the Playoffs: +184
Win Total: 10 (OVER +115/UNDER -140)

2026 New England Patriots Best Bet

Pick: To Miss the Playoffs +184

In my NFL season betting preview, 32 Bets for 32 teams, I broke down why my favorite bet on the Patriots is for them to miss the playoffs at +184:

Not only did the Patriots have a historically easy schedule last season, but they went 7-3 in one-score games. Now, they have to not only play a much tougher schedule, but they're going to have to try to either repeat their strong late-game luck or improve enough that they won't find themselves in 10 different one-score games.

Is A.J. Brown's talent going to outweigh his locker room personality that plagued the Philadelphia Eagles? Can Will Campbell improve on what was an embarrassing Super Bowl performance now that he has to face much better pass rushes? Can they find a pass rush themselves? There are a lot more question marks surrounding the defending AFC champions than you might think. I'll take a shot on betting them to suffer a Super Bowl hangover and miss the playoffs entirely.

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