Jacksonville Jaguars Win Total Projection for 2026 Season (Oddsmakers Aren't High on Jaguars)

The Jacksonville Jaguars had a fantastic first season under new head coach Liam Coen. They played to a 13-4 record, their best regular-season record in the Trevor Lawrence era, including winning the AFC South for the first time since 2022.

Unfortunately, they lost to the Buffalo Bills by a field goal in the Wild Card Round, but there's plenty to feel good about in Duval County heading into the 2026 campaign.

Can the Jaguars repeat last seasons success? Let's find out what the oddsmakers think.

2026 Jacksonville Jaguars Win Projection

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

OVER 8.5 (-140)
UNDER 8.5 (+116)

The Jaguars' projected win total for 2026 is set at 8.5 with the OVER juiced to -140, which means there's an implied probability of 58.33% that the Jaguars will go 9-8 or better.

It's surprising to see the Jaguars with a relatively low win total considering they went 14-3 last season. Even if they hit the over on their win total and finish at 9-8, that's five fewer wins than they had last year.

There are a few factors for this. One is that the AFC South is now a much more difficult division than it has been in years past, with the Texans having one of the best defenses in the league and both the Titans and Colts set to improve from last season. That has resulted in the Jaguars having one of the more difficult schedules in the league.

With that being said, I still believe their win total is an overreaction to their schedule difficulty. Sure, they likely won't reach 14 wins for a second straight season, but they had arguably the most underrated defense in the league last season. Their defense ranks sixth in DVOA, and their special teams came in at fifth. It was their offense that held them back, if anything, and that's the area that I expect to improve in 2026 with Lawrence having a full season in Coen's scheme under his belt.

The over on the Jaguars win total this season might be one of the best win total bets on the board.

Pick: OVER 8.5 Wins (-140) via DraftKings

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