Jaguars vs. Bengals Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 4

The Jaguars are underdogs against the Bengals in Week 4.

The Jacksonville Jaguars and quarterback Trevor Lawrence are underdogs in Week 4. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

A pair of 2-1 teams are set to square off in Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season, as the Jacksonville Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence look to build on a massive showing in Week 3 when they take on Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals.

Jacksonville dominated the New England Patriots in Week 3, allowing just six points and moving up to No. 1 in the league in EPA/Pass on defense in the process. The Jaguars are the only team over .500 in the AFC South, a division that they won in 2025 and are in the driver’s seat to repeat as champs in this season. 

The Bengals, on the other hand, had a two-game winning streak snapped in a divisional battle against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Cincy defense had by far its worst showing of the season after an impressive start vaulted it into the top 10 in the league in EPA/Play. 

Cincy remains favored in this Week 4 clash, but only by 2.5 points. 

Both of these teams have playoff expectations, though this game may mean more to the Bengals, who are in an AFC North division where every team is 2-1 through three weeks. 

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, betting trends, injuries and my pick for this AFC showdown on Sunday. 

Jaguars vs. Bengals Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Jaguars +2.5 (-110)
• Bengals -2.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Jaguars: +114
• Bengals: -135

Total

• 51.5 (Over -102/Under -118)

Jaguars vs. Bengals How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 4
• Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Paycor Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Jaguars record: 2-1
• Bengals record: 2-1

Jaguars vs. Bengals Injury Reports

Jaguars Injury Report

• Albert Regis – questionable

Bengals Injury Report

• Jalen Davis – questionable
• Colbie Young – questionable
• B.J. Hill – questionable
• Andrei Iosivas – questionable

Jaguars vs. Bengals Betting Trends

• Jacksonville is 2-1 against the spread this season.
• The Jaguars are 0-1 straight up and against the spread on the road. 
• The Bengals are 2-1 against the spread this season.
• Cincy is 1-0 against the spread at home in 2026. 
• The UNDER is 2-1 in the Jaguars’ games this season.
• The OVER is 2-1 in the Bengals’ games this season. 

Jaguars vs. Bengals Key Player to Watch

Ja’Marr Chase, Wide Receiver, Cincinnati Bengals

Ja’Marr Chase has a tough matchup in Week 4 against a Jacksonville defense that is now No. 1 in the NFL in EPA/Pass after shutting down New England in Week 3. 

Now, the Jags did allow a 100-yard game to Jaylen Waddle in Week 2, and Chase is the type of player that could recreate that performance on Sunday.

This season, the Bengals star has 18 catches for 185 yards and three scores, even though he caught just two passes for 12 yards in Week 1. Since then, Chase has put up 75 yards in back-to-back games and had nine grabs for 98 yards and a score in Week 3. 

Joe Burrow should look his way early and often in this Week 4 battle. 

Jaguars vs. Bengals Prediction and Pick

Jacksonville has turned in three solid performances this season, dominating New England (Week 3) and Cleveland (Week 1) while falling just short against Denver in Week 2. 

The Jags had control of that game against the Broncos, but they wilted down the stretch in a tough road environment. Despite that, I like them as road dogs this week against Cincinnati.

The Bengals are off to a 2-1 start, but their defense regressed in Week 3, allowing Aaron Rodgers to dice them up for three scores. Trevor Lawrence has thrown seven scores and just two picks this season, and he’s looked like a much different quarterback since the second half of the 2025 season. 

As good as Cincy’s wins were against Tampa Bay and Houston, those teams are now a combined 0-6 in 2026 and may not be as good as initially projected by oddsmakers. Plus, the Cincy offense ranks behind Jacksonville in EPA/Play (the Jags are fifth, Cincy is ninth) and yards per play in 2026.

On defense, Jacksonville made Drake Maye look like a backup quarterback in Week 3, pushing it to fourth in the NFL in EPA/Play and eighth in success rate. 

After going 13-4 and winning the AFC South in 2025, the Jaguars have been undervalued entering 2026. I think this start shows they’re for real as a playoff contender, and I’ll gladly take the 2.5 points on Sunday. 

Pick: Jaguars +2.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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