Jaguars vs. Broncos Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 16 (Trust Denver at Home)

Can Denver stay undefeated at home?

The Denver Broncos and quarterback Bo Nix are favored on Sunday. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos control their destiny for the No. 1 seed in the AFC after they beat the Green Bay Packers and clinched a playoff spot in Week 15.

Denver has won 11 games in a row and has yet to lose at home this season heading into a major AFC clash with the AFC South-leading Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are on fire right now, winning five games in a row while quarterback Trevor Lawrence has played some of the best football of his career.

Jacksonville is attempting to hold off Houston in the AFC South standings, and a win over Denver could give it an outside shot at the No. 1 seed in the conference.

Oddsmakers have set the Broncos as favorites in this game, but should bettors trust them given how many one-score games they’ve played this season? 

All season long, the SI Betting team has been sharing final score predictions for games in the NFL, and this week is no different! These predictions are a fun way for us to predict the score while also giving bettors our thoughts on the spread and total.

So, here’s a look at how I’m betting on this matchup between two division leaders in the AFC. 

Jaguars vs. Broncos Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Jaguars +3 (-110)
• Broncos -3 (-110)

Moneyline

• Jaguars: +136
• Broncos: -162

Total

• 45.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

The Broncos opened up as 2.5-point favorites in this game, but the odds always favored them moving to a three-point favorite. On Sunday night, Denver was -120 to cover a 2.5-point spread, so it’s not a surprise this has moved to the key number of 3. 

Denver is undefeated at home this season, so the -162 on the moneyline may not be a bad play on Sunday. 

Jaguars vs. Broncos Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for this game in his Road to 272 column, and he’s trusting Denver to cover at home. 

This game is a showdown between two teams that I have been claiming for a while aren't as good as their record indicates. While both teams have proven me wrong, I believe in the Broncos more than the Jaguars. Denver has been a fantastic team at home with a net yards per play of +1.1. They're also fourth in overall net yards per play, and their elite secondary is going to cause Trevor Lawrence fits.

Lawrence has had a roller coaster season, but now he has his toughest matchup he's had all season. The Jaguars' offense is 14th in DVOA and now has to face a strong Broncos' defense on its home field.

One of these two teams will come crashing back down to earth, and I think it's going to be the Jaguars.

The Broncos have yet to lose at home this season, and they’re coming off arguably their most impressive win of the season against Green Bay. Denver does play a lot of close games, but I’m not totally sold on a Jags team that has won against Arizona, the New York Jets, Indianapolis and Tennessee in its last four games. 

Final Score Prediction: Broncos 27, Jaguars 23

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