Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca Prediction, Odds for French Open Quarterfinals

A trip to the French Open semifinals is on the line on Tuesday afternoon, as No. 26 Jakub Mensik takes on No. 28 Joao Fonseca after both players pulled off major upsets in the fourth round.

Mensik took down No. 11 Andrey Rublev in the fourth round and No. 8 Alex de Minaur in the third round to reach the quarterfinals at Roland Garros for the first time in his career. In fact. Mensik had just one fourth-round appearance at a Grand Slam (the 2026 Australian Open) prior to this tournament.

Meanwhile, Fonseca is one of the best young, up-and-coming players in the world. The 19-year-old made the third round of the French Open last year, and he knocked off legend Novak Djokovic in Round 3 before downing No. 15 Capser Ruud in Round 4.

Oddsmakers have set the 19-year-old as the favorite in this match, but can he come through with a win?

Let’s take a look at the odds, each player’s path to the quarterfinals and my prediction for Tuesday’s match.

Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Jakub Mensik: +174
Joao Fonseca: -218

Total

37.5 (Over -115/Under -125)

Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, June 2
Time: 2:15 p.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): truTV/TNT/HBO Max

Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca History and French Open Performance

Jakub Mensik

Mensik has gone through a tough road to the quarterfinals, and he’s put together his best showing at a Grand Slam in his career.

The 20-year-old has a small history with Fonseca, losing the lone match where both players were able to participate. It’s worth noting that Mensik has gone to five sets in two of his last three matches to reach the quarterfinals.

Joao Fonseca

Fonseca is 1-0 against Mensik in his career, beating him in the Next Gen ATP Finals before also winning by walkover at Basel in 2025.

The 19-year-old has been unbelievably impressive in this tournament, rallying from a two sets to nothing deficit against Djokovic before sending Ruud home in four sets.

He had a third-round appearance at the French Open in 2025, and this could be Fonseca’s breakthrough chance with the field extremely wide open after Djokovic, Jannik Sinner, Ben Shelton and others went down in the early rounds.

Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca Prediction and Pick

This is an extremely unexpected quarterfinal match, but I’m going to ride with the favorite – even though he’s the lower seed – on Tuesday.

Fonseca has the head-to-head advantage over Mensik in his career, and the Brazilian took down two legitimate French Open title contenders in Djokovic and Ruud. His comeback against Djokovic is one of the most impressive wins at Roland Garros this year, and he knocked off Ruud in just four sets.

Meanwhile, Mensik had a little more trouble with Rublev and his second-round opponent Mariano Navone, going to five sets with both of them.

Both players have just one other appearance at the French Open, but Fonseca outperformed Mensik there as well, reaching the third round in 2025. I’ll take a shot on the 19-year-old to continue his underdog run into the semifinals.

Pick: Joao Fonseca Moneyline (-218 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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