Jets vs. Patriots Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 11 (New England Should Win Big)

Drake Maye and the New England Patriots are 8-2 and hold the top spot in the AFC East heading into a primetime matchup on Thursday Night Football against the New York Jets.

New York is just 2-7 in the 2025 season, but it has won back-to-back games against the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns. Aaron Glenn’s team is showing some signs of life despite trading away Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner at the trade deadline.

This is the first of two meetings between these teams in the 2025 season, and oddsmakers have set the Patriots as massive favorites at home. New England has won seven games in a row, propelling Maye into the MVP conversation in the process. He’s the betting favorite to win the award, but he’ll need to close out the season strong to hold off contenders like Matthew Stafford and Patrick Mahomes.

New England is 7-3 against the spread this season, and it’s only lost twice to the Jets since the beginning of the 2016 season. Does it continue its dominance in this rivalry matchup?

All season long, the SI Betting team is predicting the final score of every NFL game as a way to help bettors decide on their spread and total bets.

Here’s a breakdown of my prediction for Thursday Night Football in Week 11.

Jets vs. Patriots Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Jets +12.5 (-112)
Patriots -12.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Jets: +575
Patriots: -850

Total

43.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

This spread has made a major shift since opening with New England as a 10.5-point favorite at home. The Patriots are now favored by 12.5, and oddsmakers clearly are expecting a blowout in this lopsided matchup. The Jets are 5-4 against the spread despite their subpar record, but they’re going to have a tough time keeping up with Maye and this vaunted New England offense.

Jets vs. Patriots Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his pick for this game in his Road to 272 column, and he’s betting on the Pats to cover at home:

You don't need me to tell you how much better the Patriots are than the Jets. We all know this, and the 11.5-point spread indicates as such. The reason why I'm laying this many points in a divisional matchup on a short week is that this is a stylistic nightmare for the Jets. The weakness of the Patriots' defense is their secondary, ranking 26th in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up 6.9 yards per throw. Their strength is stopping the run. They haven't allowed a 54-yard rusher yet this season, and they rank in the top 10 in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate.

Considering the Jets are averaging 19 fewer passing yards per game compared to the next-worst team, I struggle to think of how New York will move the ball against the Patriots' defense. I'll lay the points with New England on Thursday night.

I agree with MacMillan – even with this line inching closer to a two-touchdown spread. I took the Patriots in our betting preview this week, and I think they’ll be able to shutdown a subpar Jets offense that is expected to be without star receiver Garrett Wilson.

The Patriots are seventh in the NFL in EPA/Rush, and they should be able to keep Justin Fields and company in check. New England’s ATS record is no joke, and it should be able to roll at home, where it is 3-2 this season.

Final Score Prediction: Patriots 27, Jets 13

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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