Kansas City Chiefs Win Total Projection for 2026 Season (Is the Chiefs Era Over?)

Everything that could have gone wrong for the Chiefs in 2025 went wrong. After nine straight seasons of AFC West titles, seven straight AFC Championship appearances, and three straight Super Bowl appearances, the Chiefs missed the playoffs entirely, finishing at 6-11.

Not only did they have their worst season since 2012, but their starting quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, tore his ACL late in the year.

The plethora of disastrous results has left plenty of question marks surrounding the Chiefs heading into the 2026 campaign. Was last year a blip on the radar? Will the Chiefs get back to their winning ways? Can Mahomes return to his MVP form?

The good news for Chiefs fans is that the betting market expects them to get back to competing for a playoff spot. Let's dive further into their projected win total for the 2026 NFL season.

2026 Kansas City Chiefs Win Total Projection

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

OVER 10.5 Wins (+115)
UNDER 10.5 Wins (-140)

The Chiefs' win total is set at 10.5, with the UNDER juiced to -140. That means there's an implied probability of 58.33% that the Chiefs will go 10-7 or worse.

In my NFL betting preview article, 32 Bets for 32 Teams, I made the case for betting on the UNDER 10.5 wins for the Chiefs:

I don't think this is automatically going to be a bounce-back season for the Kansas City Chiefs. Yes, Patrick Mahomes got hurt late in the season last year, and they lost plenty of one-score games, but I wasn't impressed by this team as a whole even before the Mahomes injury. The team was just 15th in the league in DVOA, and Mahomes ranked just 21st in the league in completion percentage over expected. Their defense wasn't a top 10 unit either, ranking 12th in EPA and 14th in success rate.

On top of all their 2025 woes, they had a less-than-stellar offseason. They traded away Trent McDuffee and let Jaylen Watson walk, and I don't think they did enough to replace those two pieces.

Is Mahomes really going to return from an ACL injury and lead this roster to an 11-win season? I don't think so.

Pick: UNDER 10.5 Wins (-140) via DraftKings

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