Knicks vs. Spurs Early Prediction for NBA Finals Game 5 (Can New York Cover on Saturday?)

Could the 2026 NBA Finals come to an end on Saturday night?

Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks are now up 3-1 and are heavily favored to win their first title since 1973 after OG Anunoby’s game-winning tip-in helped the Knicks complete a 29-point comeback in Game 4 – the largest comeback in Finals history.

That has pushed Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs to the brink in Game 5, and they’ll need a win on their home floor to see another day in this series. San Antonio is looking to become just the second team in the history of the Finals to come back from a 3-1 deficit (the 2106 Cleveland Cavaliers are the only team to accomplish the feat), and it is favored to win Game 5 at home.

Game 5 doesn’t tip off until Saturday night, but I thought I’d share an early lean for this game, equipped with the odds from the best betting sites.

As of Friday morning, oddsmakers seem to think that Wembanyama and Co. will be able to extend this series for at least one more game.

Knicks vs. Spurs Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Knicks +5.5 (-112)
Spurs -5.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Knicks: +164
Spurs: -198

Total

216.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Let’s start with the odds to win this series before we dive into how things stack in Game 5. New York is now a -500 favorite to win the title, but oddsmakers are expecting that to be in six games. New York is +145 to win this series in six, but +164 to win Game 5 and close things out on Saturday night.

Even with the Knicks up 3-1 in this series, oddsmakers haven’t changed much when it comes to the line for this game.

New York is once again a 5.5-point underdog on the road, and the total (216.5) remains in the spot that it was in Game 4. The spread is a shift from the games at MSG, as the Spurs were just 2.5-point underdogs on the road and covered in both of those games.

In fact, the road team is 4-0 against the spread and 3-1 straight up in this series.

Knicks vs. Spurs Game 5 Prediction and Early Lean

At this point, it’s starting to feel like the Knicks are just a team of destiny.

New York has multiple 20-point comebacks in the playoffs, including the largest comeback in Finals history to steal Game 4. Now, the Knicks are also playing at an insanely high level, ranking No. 1 in the playoffs in offensive, defensive and net rating, and they held San Antonio to just 30 second-half points in Game 4.

The Spurs are going to come out fighting in Game 5, and they’ve gotten off to strong starts in every game in this series. However, I can’t bet on them to cover this 5.5-point spread.

First off, the 2026 NBA Finals have been extremely close with New York winning Game 1 by 10 points before Games 2 through 4 were decided by one, four and one point. This postseason, the Knicks have just three losses and all of them have come by four points or less.

So, the Spurs would have to do something that nobody has done this postseason to cover the spread in this game.

If bettors and fans didn’t know about the resilience of this Knicks team, there is no better example than how Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby and Co. walked down the Spurs in Game 4.

I’m not going to say that the Knicks win another road game to take the Finals in five, but I do think they’ll keep this game close. These teams have been extremely even through four games, and asking the Spurs to cover two possessions and win by six-plus seems like a stretch, especially since they already lost two games at home in this series.

Pick: Knicks +5.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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