Liberty vs. Dream Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet WNBA Playoffs Semifinals Game 1

Breanna Stewart and the New York Liberty pulled off a massive upset in the first round of the WNBA Playoffs, sweeping the No. 1-seeded Minnesota Lynx.

The 2024 WNBA Champions, the Liberty are looking to make another run to the Finals, but they’re underdogs in Game 1 of the semis on Sunday against the Atlanta Dream. Atlanta made quick work of the No. 5-seeded Washington Mystics in the first round, and it closed the regular season by winning nine of 10 games.

So, Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray and Angel Reese are more than capable of reaching the Finals this season. After all, they won back-to-back games over New York to close the regular season and drop the Liberty to the No. 8 seed.

There’s a ton of familiarity between these teams, and we could see a longer series with all of the experience on both sides. The Dream have been a top-four seed in the playoffs in back-to-back seasons, but they’ve yet to break through to make the Finals with this current core.

Can they hold off New York in Game 1?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Game 1 of the WNBA Semifinals on Sunday afternoon.

Liberty vs. Dream Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Liberty +3.5 (-105)
Dream -3.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Liberty: +145
Dream: -175

Total

172.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Liberty vs. Dream How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Oct. 4
Time: 2:00 p.m. EST
Venue: State Farm Arena
How to Watch (TV): ABC
Series: Tied 0-0

Liberty vs. Dream Injury Reports

Liberty Injury Report

Xu Han – questionable
Satou Sabally – out

Dream Injury Report

Brionna Jones – out

Liberty vs. Dream Best WNBA Prop Bets

Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bet

Breanna Stewart OVER 22.5 Points (-118)

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m taking Stewart to have a huge Game 1:

Breanna Stewart was elite in the Liberty’s series against Minnesota, scoring 34 points in Game 1 and 21 points in Game 2 while shooting a combined 17-for-34 from the field.

The two-time league MVP closed the regular season on a high note, dropping 24, 24 and 27 points in her three games following the FIBA World Cup break. The 27-point showing came in a loss to this Atlanta team, which has given up 19 and 27 points to Stewie in two games (she sat out the regular-season finale).

The Liberty are going to run a ton of offense through Stewart, who did not come out of the game in New York’s Game 2 win. With that type of usage, the veteran forward is really hard to pass up given her unique scoring talent.

The Dream finished the regular season third in the WNBA in defensive rating, but they were also fifth in pace. A game with a few more possessions certainly benefits Stewart, who has been on fire since the league returned in September.

Liberty vs. Dream Prediction and Pick

These two teams finished the regular season in the top six in the league in offensive rating, and they played some high-scoring games in their three meetings.

While Stewart sat out the Liberty’s season finale against the Dream, the first two matchups between these teams both cleared this total. They combined for 194 points on June 11 and 179 points on Sept. 21.

There are also two key trends to watch when it comes to the total on Sunday:

The OVER is 15-8 in Atlanta’s home games – the highest over rate in the WNBA.
The OVER is 15-7 in the Liberty’s road games – the second-highest over rate in the WNBA.

Since there is so much offensive talent in this game – Stewart, Howard, Gray, Reese, Jonquel Jones, Sabrina Ionescu – I don’t mind betting on yet another high-scoring affair in Game 1.

Pick: OVER 172.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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