Lions vs. Chiefs Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 6 (Upset Brewing in Kansas City)

The Lions are underdogs in Week 6.

The Detroit Lions and quarterback Jared Goff are underdogs in Week 6. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The best matchup of Week 6 takes place on Sunday night as the Detroit Lions hit the road to play the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes.

Both of these teams have Super Bowl expectations in the 2025 season, but the Chiefs are off to a 2-3 start after losing on Monday night in Week 5 to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Still they are favored at home in this matchup against a 4-1 Detroit team that has won four games in a row after getting blown out by the Green Bay Packers in Week 1. 

Detroit has also covered the spread in four straight, making it one of the top teams to bet on this season. Can it keep that streak going against Patrick Mahomes and company? 

Each week this season, the SI Betting team will be sharing final score predictions for every game as a way to help bettors decide on spread and total bets.

Let’s dive into the analysis and score prediction for this Sunday Night Football clash. 

Lions vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Lions +2.5 (-110)
• Chiefs -2.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Lions: +114
• Chiefs: -135

Total

• 52.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

There’s been some minor movement in the odds for this matchup, as the Chiefs opened up as just 1.5-point favorites, but things have shifted to Kansas City being favored by 2.5 points. 

This is interesting since KC is 0-3 in one-score games this season and the Lions have covered in four games in a row. Can Detroit keep things close on the road? Here’s our score prediction for this matchup. 

Lions vs. Chiefs Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan broke down his favorite bet for this game in his Road to 272 column – where he picks every game, every week – and he’s riding with Detroit on the road: 

I was ready to bet against the Lions this week based on their recent competition, but DVOA, which adjusts for strength of opponent, has the Lions ranked as the No. 1-ranked team in the league. Not only do they rank in the top four on both offense and defense, but they're also fourth in special teams DVOA. Their defense has been far better than people give them credit for, ranking sixth in opponent EPA and third in opponent success rate.

The Chiefs' win against the Ravens doesn't look quite as good as it did a couple of weeks ago. I'm not quite sold on this team belonging in the elite tier in the NFL this season, so I'll back the Lions in this spot.

I agree with MacMillan in this one, as I wrote in SI’s betting preview for this game earlier in the week why I love the Lions to cover the number: 

Detroit has really turned things around after a rough Week 1 loss to the Green Bay Packers, and it ranks fourth in EPA/Play on both offense and defense. The Lions have run for the sixth-most yards in the NFL, and they should end up destroying this Kansas City defense on the ground in Week 6.

While the Chiefs have won two of their last three games, they have struggled against superior competition, going 0-3 against the Jaguars (4-1), Philadelphia Eagles (4-1) and Los Angeles Chargers (3-2). On top of that, the Chiefs are 0-3 in one-score games, and this spread suggests that they’ll play another close game in Week 6.

Kansas City is allowing the sixth-most yards per carry in the league, and I don’t think it’ll be able to slow down a Detroit offense that has scored the most points in the NFL and has covered the spread in four in a row. 

Don’t be shocked if the Lions win this game outright. 

Final Score Prediction: Lions 31, Chiefs 28

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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