Los Angeles Chargers Win Total Projection for 2026 Season (Sky is the Limit for Los Angeles)

The Los Angeles Chargers have had two successful seasons since Jim Harbaugh took over as head coach. Both years were almost identical, resulting in 11-6 records, a wild-card berth, and a first-round exit. They lost to the Texans 32-12 in 2024 and then to the Patriots 16-3.

The Chargers will look to take the next step this season, and the stars seem to be aligning for what looks to be one of the best seasons they've had since the days of Philip Rivers and LaDainian Tomlinson.

Can they reach those lofty expectations? Let's find out what the oddsmakers think.

2026 Los Angeles Chargers Win Total Projection

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

OVER 9.5 (-140)
UNDER 9.5 (+115)

The Chargers' win total is set at 9.5 for the 2026 season with the OVER juiced to -140. That means there's an implied probability of 58.33% that they'll go 10-7 or better. A 10-win season would be a regression for the Chargers, who have posted back-to-back 11-win campaigns.

The biggest acquisition for the Chargers this offseason wasn't a player; it was a coach. They signed former Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel as their offensive coordinator. Offensive scheme and play-calling have held the Chargers back in the Harbaugh era, but now they have one of the best offensive minds on their sideline. McDaniel may not have been head coach material, at least not yet, but there's no doubting his skill as an offensive schemer and playcaller. He now has plenty of weapons and one of the best young quarterbacks in the league to use in his system.

Los Angeles also acquired a reliable tight end for Herbert to target in David Njoku, who was great in Cleveland with the Browns since 2017, despite never having consistent play at quarterback.

The biggest factor for the Chargers this season is going to be their health. The ceiling of their 2026 season was lowered significantly when they lost both starting tackles, Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, to injury. Their rookie running back, Omarion Hampton, was also dealing with an injury that caused him to miss eight games.

If they can stay healthy this season and McDaniel can draw up an effective scheme for Herbert, the sky is the limit for the Chargers in 2026. With the Broncos in for some regression and the Chiefs coming off a disastrous 2025 season, the AFC West could be for the taking for the Chargers. I'll bet the OVER on their win total at 9.5, and I also like the OVER 10.5 at +130 if you want to get more aggressive.

Pick: OVER 9.5 Wins (-140) via DraftKings

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