Mac's Sunday Slate: 5 Best Bets for NFL Week 5

I spend my time throughout the week breaking down my best bets for the weekend's football action. I write the Road to 272 Bets on Monday night and the Player Prop Countdown on Thursday. To be honest, the best strategy is to place NFL bets as soon as possible to try to get closing line value before Sunday arrives.

If you aren't one of those people who placed your bets early this week, don't worry. My Sunday slate that I write every Sunday morning is where I give you five bets that I believe still have value. Some of my bets from earlier this week has seen the line change throughout the week, like the Falcons who I bet as underdogs on Monday night, no longer have value as 3.5-point favorites. The bets I give you this morning are ones where the lines have yet to move to where I think they should be.

Without further ado, it's time for to dive into the Week 5 edition of the Sunday Slate.

5 Best NFL Bets Today

Steelers -2.5 (-110) vs. Colts via TheScore Bet
Saints +116 vs. Vikings via FanDuel
Patriots -3.5 (-108) vs. Raiders via BetMGM
KC Concepcion Anytime Touchdown (+300) via FanDuel
Bijan Robinson OVER 119.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards via FanDuel

Best Bet No. 1: Steelers -2.5 (-110) vs. Colts

The Colts are in an extremely tough spot in this game. They're coming off an international game and now have to play on the road against a team that's coming off a mini-bye, as the Steelers haven't played since last Thursday Night Football.

I also have some significant concerns about this Colts team. They enter this week ranking dead last in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at -1.7. To be fair, they have had a relatively tough schedule to begin the season, with games against the Ravens, Chiefs, and Texans, but their defense has been bad throughout, ranking 22nd in opponent EPA per play.

I don't think the Colts are good enough to overcome the travel and rest discrepancy between these two teams.

Best Bet No 2: Saints +116 vs. Vikings

As bad as the Saints' defense looked on Monday Night Football, the Vikings simply can't continue to find ways to win football games. Their offense is truly horrific, ranking 28th in EPA per play and dead last in the NFL in success rate. Their defense has won them games, but that can only take a team so far. Now, they have to hit the road to take on a Saints team that can at least move the ball through the air offensively.

The wrong team is favored in this game.

Best Bet No. 3: Patriots -3.5 (-108) vs. Raiders

There's no denying the Raiders have earned their record to begin their season; their metrics have been strong, and they're 3-1 on the year, but with that being said, I think we can sell high on them after they've covered the spread each week. Before the season began, the Patriots were 8.5-point favorites in this game on the lookahead line. Now, the line is down to 3.5. Are we putting enough stock into a four-game sample size to move the line five whole points? I'm not quite convinced of that.

The Patriots had some poor luck in the first few weeks, and despite the slow start, their defense has still played well, ranking eighth in opponent success rate. That's above the Raiders' defense in that metric, which comes in at 11th.

A major concern I have about the Raiders is that they continue to struggle to run the ball. They rank 29th in rush EPA and 30th in rush success rate. That means that, in order for them to move the ball offensively, they have to rely on Kirk Cousins' arm. While that has worked to a certain extent early in the season, do you trust him that much moving forward? I certainly don't.

I'll lay the points with New England.

Best Bet No. 4: KC Concepcion Anytime Touchdown (+300)

KC Concepcion hasn't scored a touchdown yet this season, but he's leading all Browns pass catchers in targets this season with 28, five more than any other team. He now gets to face a Jets' secondary that ranks 23rd in opponent dropback EPA and 29th in opponent dropback success rate. It's time to bet on him to find the end zone for the first time in his NFL career.

Best Bet No. 5: Bijan Robinson OVER 119.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

How could you not bet on Bijan Robinson to have another huge game? Not only is he playing behind one of the best offensive lines in football who have opened up holes the size of trucks for him to run through, but he is also being used frequently in the passing game.

He and the Falcons now get to face an average Ravens defense that ranks 13th in opponent EPA per play and 15th in opponent success rate. They're also 24th in opponent rush EPA.

Bijan plays his best when the lights are brightest, so I expect another huge prime-time performance by the Falcons' star running back.

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