Mac’s Sunday Slate: Best NFL Bets for Week 10

Another Sunday, another loaded slate of NFL games for us to watch and bet on. Not only that, but today's Germany showdown between the Detroit Lions and the New England Patriots will be the last morning game, so be sure to toss on a pot of coffee and enjoy the action.

As I do each week, I take my favorite bets from the Road to 272 Bets and Player Prop Countdown that I think have value, and I toss them into Mac's Sunday Slate for those of you who bet on Sunday mornings. Most of the odds from my plays from earlier this week have moved, but there are still a few that have remained steady that I believe have betting value ahead of today's kickoff. Let's dive into them.

5 Best NFL Bets Today

Patriots +128 vs. Lions
C.J. Stroud OVER 244.5 Pass Yards vs. Browns
Jets +8.5 (-115) vs. Bills
Michael Penix Jr. OVER 0.5 Interceptions (-102)
Cowboys +4.5 (-115) vs. 49ers

Best Bet No. 1: Patriots +128 vs. Lions

I'm going to take a chance and bet on the Patriots to win as outright underdogs in a great buy-low, sell-high spot. New England is much better than it looked in Week 9 against the Packers, and the Lions still have plenty of issues that give me pause when it comes to betting on them as favorites.

The Lions' defense has a laundry list of injuries, and their metrics as a whole place them as one of the worst defenses in the entire league, ranking 30th in opponent EPA per play, 19th in opponent success rate, and 21st in opponent yards per play (5.4). Drake Maye has shown a history of torching bad secondaries, and you might be surprised to find out he comes into this game ranking fifth amongst all quarterbacks in adjusted EPA per play and second in completion percentage over expected.

The Patriots should be able to rack up points, and as long as their defense can keep the Lions' offense in check, they'll be live to win this game.

Best Bet No. 2: C.J. Stroud OVER 244.5 Pass Yards vs. Browns

C.J. Stroud has quietly become one of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL over the past few weeks. In fact, since Week 4, he's second in the league in adjusted EPA per play and sixth in completion percentage over expected. He's playing as well as he has all season, and he has thrown for 260+ yards in all but two games this season. We now only need him to reach 246 passing yards for him to cash this bet for us.

Best Bet No. 3: Jets +8.5 (-115) vs. Bills

Every season, there is a team that I'm higher on than the market is, and more often than not, I continuously lose money on them, yet I continue to bet on them. The New York Jets are the 2026 version of that team for me.

The Jets are far from a good team, but I still believe they're better than their record. They're 13th in net yards per play (+0.2), 19th in EPA per play, and 10th in success rate. Their secondary has been bad, but they rank 16th in opponent EPA per play, which could go a long way in keeping things tight against the Bills.

I'll take the points with the Jets.

Best Bet No. 4: Michael Penix Jr. OVER 0.5 Interceptions (-102)

As a Falcons fan, I'm starting to lose faith in Michael Penix Jr. His accuracy hasn't seemingly improved from last season, and he enters Week 10 action with the fifth-highest bad throw rate, with 17.1% of his passes being considered "bad". He has now thrown a combined five interceptions in the past two games. I'll bet on him to throw another against a Chiefs defense that is averaging 0.8 interceptions per game.

Best Bet No. 5: Cowboys +4.5 (-115) vs. 49ers

I strayed from my Cowboys' betting strategy last week and paid the price. I said early in the season that anytime the Cowboys play, we should bet against them when they're laying points, bet on them when they're underdogs, and bet the OVER when they're playing in a coin flip. If I had stuck to that strategy, I would've won a lot more bets on their games this season.

Let's get back to that strategy now that they're home underdogs to the 49ers. I know that San Francisco is the better team, especially defensively, but their injuries are starting to pile up. They may be without Deebo Samuel and Mike Evans at wide receiver, as well as Deommodore Lenoir and Renardo Green at cornerback. Those injuries could come back to haunt them against the Cowboys.

I'll take the points with Dallas.

Follow Iain on X and Instagram

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

Claim the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code offer to earn $50 in bonus bets every day for seven days. Simply sign up, deposit, and bet $5 on seven consecutive days, and receive your $350 bonus.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Add us as a preferred source on Google