Making Moves | December 1, 2025

Our luck continues. Another winning weekend for the show. Welcome to today's episode of Making Moves with Mac presented by FanDuel. It is Monday, December 1st, and we gotta recap the holiday action, the weekend action, college football, NFL, and get you set up for tonight's Monday Night Football game. All that and more coming up. Let's take a look at the top headlines in sports betting today, starting with the Kansas City Chiefs, who are for the first time this season, underdogs now to make the NFL playoffs after losing to the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving afternoon in what was a very fun, Game to watch, but yeah, the Chiefs who have, uh, made it to the AFC Championship game at least in every year that Patrick Mahomes has been the starter, now expected to completely miss the playoffs. They still have a shot, their odds are just outside, uh, 50% at plus 100% at even money. Uh, but if they lose one more game the rest of the season, that will virtually be it. And they do have some tough opponents left. They do have some easy games. They still have to play the Raiders once and the Titans, uh, once, but they do have 3 games against tough opponents, Broncos, Chargers, and then the Texans this weekend in week 14. If they lose any of those 3 games or 5 games, I mean, who knows, maybe they could lose to the Raiders or Titans. The Chiefs, uh, will miss the playoffs for the first time in. Patrick Mahomes' career, uh, the playoff pitcher is going to look wild this season. Not only are the Chiefs underdogs to make the postseason, the Detroit Lions are now underdogs to make the postseason. Not only do they continue to lose games, they just lost to their divisional rival, the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving, uh, but the Chicago Bears continue to win games. Uh, that Friday, Black Friday win, uh, for the Bears is not over, not only, uh, devastating for yours truly, uh, I'm out of my big money survivor pool. Done. Because of the Eagles, cause Jalen Hurts fumbled with a chance to take the lead there, uh, in the second half. So not only is that devastating for me, it's devastating for Lions fans because now the Lions on the outside looking in, the Chicago Bears. As of Monday, uh, number 1 seed in the NFC. What a world. Uh, and making the playoffs , uh, is gonna be tough in the NFC. A lot of teams, there's gonna probably be a team that gets to 1010 wins and does not make the postseason. The 49ers keep winning, the Bears keep winning. Um, so, uh, that was a tough loss for the Lions on Thanksgiving against the Packers. Their odds have now fallen down to 120 to return to the postseason. Still very much alive, uh, but it's not looking good. Not fun, uh, odds to wake up to for Lions fans, uh, this morning. Uh, the AFC South has become a fun race, uh, with the Indianapolis Colts, uh, losing to the Texans this past weekend and the Jaguars beating the Titans, uh, very much alive for any of those three teams. The Titans obviously not in it. Uh, but the Colts still slight favorites at 130 to win the AFC South, with the Jaguars right behind them at 140. The Texans, uh, at 350. I'm gonna talk about the Colts a little bit later in the show, but it is worth noting they have the toughest remaining schedule. In the NFL this season. The 5 remaining games are against the Seahawks, the 49ers, 2 against the Jaguars, and another 1 against the Texans, who they just lost to. So, uh, might be time to push the panic button for Indianapolis, uh, after they were the best team in the league for the first half, uh, of the season. Uh, when you look at the latest Super Bowl odds, despite the loss to the Panthers, which was a baffling loss, the Rams are still the favorites to win the Super Bowl at 470, but what's interesting. Is that the four teams who sit atop the odds to win Super Bowl 60 are all from the NFC. Uh, uh, it's been a long time since I've seen, uh, one conference be this much better than the other, but the NFC dominant this year. The Rams plus 470, and you got the Seahawks plus 850, the Packers and Eagles both at 950. The, uh, team with the best odds out of the AFC, uh, are the Bills at 10 to 1. Uh, not the Patriots. Patriots, uh, it goes Bills, Broncos, Patriots, Colts, Ravens, so a slew of AFC teams, but 4 NFC teams right now have better odds than anyone, uh, out of the AFC as we head into week 14. Uh, the NFL MVP race has tightened up a little bit as well. Uh, Matt Stafford didn't play great, uh, against the Carolina Panthers, ended up losing that game, but he's still the favorite at 110. Uh, so oddsmakers, uh, gotta wait to see how Drake May plays tonight against the New York Giants. He has a chance to retake the lead in the race for NFL MVP with a strong performance , but if he has a bad performance or a mediocre performance, expect Stafford to be back to being the odds-on favorite as of Tuesday morning. I will update you on the MVP race, uh , MVP race tomorrow morning after tonight's edition of Monday Night Football. It's a fun week, uh, in college football rivalry. Every week. So a lot of fun games to watch this past weekend. We do have some updated odds after this past weekend's action. We are anxiously awaiting the latest college football playoff rankings, which will get released on Tuesday. Uh, but as of right now, let's take a look at the Heisman Trophy race. Uh, for the majority of the season, it has been a two-man race between Fernando Mendoza and Julian San from Indiana and Ohio State respectively. The third man on the list is kind of alternated as Jeremiah Love last weekend, but he didn't have a good enough performance. Against Stanford to kind of stay in the mix. Now does Diego Pavia, uh, but not only is he kind of in the mix, but he's all the way up at 4 to 1 to win the Heisman Trophy after an extremely strong finish to his season for Vanderbilt. 365 yards against Texas, 377 against Auburn, 484 yards against Kentucky, and then 268 yards and a touchdown against Tennessee in a 45-24 win for Vanderbilt this past weekend. Uh, he's probably gonna have to make the college football playoff, I think. To have any shot of winning the Heisman Trophy, but it is worth noting that the Vanderbilt quarterback is in the mix to win the award. It is still likely going to be one of Fernando Mendoza or Julian San. Mendoza + 105, Julian Sana + 155. Uh, the result of the Big 10 championship this weekend between Indiana and Ohio State will likely not only obviously determine the Big 10 champion and who gets a first-round bye in the college football playoff, but I also think it will determine who's gonna win the Heisman Trophy. So maybe. You place a little bet on Julian Sanna + 155 because Ohio State is favored in that game. Uh, if they win and he has a strong performance, if Mendoza gets shut down, he's probably gonna open up next week as the favorite. So, I kind of like Julian San there at that + 155 price point. Uh, let's look at the odds to make the college football playoff right now. Uh, the big conversation heading into this week is whether or not it should be Notre Dame or Miami to make the college football playoff. It looks like it's gonna be one of the final at-large bids that's gonna go to one of those two schools. Now you would think, uh, given the fact that Miami beat Notre Dame all the way back in week one, that it would be Miami who, uh, would get that spot, but not so fast. Uh, Notre Dame is actually the minus. 320 favorite to make the college football playoff. Miami's odds far below that. Uh, and it's based on the betting odds, little to no chance for Miami to make the playoffs at plus 650. Uh, so yes, head to head, Miami did win that game, but it's gonna be tough, uh, to give you the argument to get into the playoffs when you have losses to Louisville and SMU. Uh , on your record. Whereas Notre Dame, yes, they have 2 losses, but 2 quality losses, the 2 losses came to Texas A&M and Miami. So quality of losses plays a big role, uh, in the committee's decisions on who will make the college football playoff. And I know Miami fans think you deserve to be in, uh, but the betting market does not support that opinion. They have Notre Dame in, uh, as a pretty significant favorite over Miami. I know the Texas Longhorns fans think they deserve to be in the college football playoff. Uh, Steve Sarkisian made the, uh, case for his team, uh, this past weekend after their win. Uh, but once again, you can't lose to bad teams, and Texas has a loss to Florida on its record. Not gonna be good enough for Texas, 50 to 1 to make the college football playoffs, so little, no hope for the Longhorns of making it, uh, to the postseason. The story of the week this week, in my opinion, is the ACC championship game. Uh, the reason why is cause it is gonna have a huge impact on who will make the college football playoff. We assume, because the way it works, if you didn't know, I've talked about it on the show before. Uh, there are 5 teams that get automatic bids into the playoffs. They are the 5 highest ranked teams, uh, who are also conference champions. Now, you would think, and in 99% of the cases, 4 of those 5 teams would come from power conferences. They'd be the winners of the SEC, the, uh, Big 10, the Big 12, and the ACC, and then the 5th automatic bid goes to the best champion of the group of 5 teams, the non-power conferences, but. With Duke now somehow making it to the ACC championship game, uh, they made it there because, uh, SMU, uh, defeated the team that they, that, that was about to make the, uh, ACC championship game. Now Duke, who has losses to both Tulane and UConn out of conference, made it to the ACC championship game in a six-way tie with a bunch of teams at 6 and 2. If Duke beats Virginia in the ACC championship game. They will actually not make the college football playoff because of some of their bad losses, which means only 3 power conference teams will get an automatic bid. 2 group of 5 conference teams will get the automatic bid. The winner of the AAC is probably gonna, uh, gonna be in regardless, but James Madison, who I've been a defender of James Madison all season, they're gonna get in over the ACC team because Duke being the ACC champion, not good enough to get that automatic bid. They will be the. The lowest ranked of the, uh, that should be the 6th ranked conference champion. That's not good enough to make it to the college football playoff. Fascinating scenario that's working out in the ACC. If Virginia does win though, Virginia will get in. They have good enough wins, not enough bad losses. So, uh, the ACC championship game, especially for those of you who are cheering for the James Madison Dukes, that is gonna be a big game this coming weekend between Virginia and somehow, some way , the Duke Blue Devils. Let's do a little rapid fire round, uh, the sports betting world and some other, uh, non-football sports. Uh, let's start with college basketball and the Michigan Wolverines are now 750 to win the national championship. Uh, no one really considered Michigan being a national championship contender heading into the season, uh, but they just won the Players Era Festival, which was during feast week, and not only did they win, Uh, but in extremely impressive fashion. They had a 30-point win against Auburn, number 21 ranked Auburn in the semifinals. In the finals, they beat number 12 Gonzaga, uh, the team who, uh, well, I, I probably cursed them because I think on the last show I did, I think I praised Gonzaga's, uh, I, I, you know, said this was gonna finally be their year, they win the national championship. They then lost to Michigan by. 40 points, 101 to 61. So Michigan beat two ranked teams in a row by at least 30 points. They also beat San Diego State earlier in the season by 40 points. So now Michigan, uh, plus 750 to win the college basketball national championship. Purdue still behind them at 850. Then you got the usual suspects, Duke, UConn, Gonzaga, Houston. Uh, where did Texas Tech fall to, who are my preseason pick? Down to 50 to 1. Not good, uh, not good. Uh, so Michigan, out of nowhere, all of a sudden, uh, the big time favorite to win the, uh, to win next year's March Madness tournament. Uh, we do have an MLS Cup final set. Vancouver, our Vancouver Whitecaps, you remember we bet on them a couple of weeks ago, thanks to our guest Nate Horning. Uh, Whitecaps will be in the MLS Cup Final against Inter Miami. Unfortunately, Miami, uh, led by, of course, Lionel Messi, uh, the -145 favorite in the MLS Cup Final, uh, Vancouver coming back at 310, but we will continue to trust our Vancouver, uh, Whitecaps, uh, in the MLS Cup Final this coming weekend. Uh, switching over to hockey, uh, the Anaheim Ducks leading, uh, their division, but, uh, if you're a Ducks fan, don't get your hopes up too much because, uh, the oddsmakers and betting market, no faith in the Ducks being actual contenders, still 65 to 1 to win the Stanley Cup, despite the fact they're currently leading their division. Uh, they are favored to make the playoffs at -180, but I wouldn't expect too much, uh, past that. And actually I think we're gonna see some significant regression from the Ducks here in the coming weeks. They're winning early in the season due to sharp shooting and strong goaltending, but we see this time and time again. Uh, that is very difficult to sustain for an entire NHL regular season. And we've already seen them fall off a little bit, uh, so Ducks fans, yes, likely be returning to the playoffs, uh, but don't, uh, start planning the parade route. Still not a legitimate contender despite heading into December, uh, leading, uh, your, your division in the Western Conference. Uh, Toronto fans, not Maple Leafs fans. Hockey season's over for Maple Leafs fans. We're now a basketball city, apparently. Uh, cause the Toronto Raptors are red hot. Uh, they did lose to the Knicks, uh, was it yesterday, I think, or maybe it was Saturday. It was sometime over the weekend, they got just steamrolled by the New York Knicks. Uh, but the Raptors still very good and actually, uh, in the running to win the Atlantic Division. Uh, that loss to the Knicks didn't help, but they're 2nd on the odds list to win the Atlantic now at 230. That is far ahead of the 76ers at 8 to 1 and the Boston Celtics at 11 to 1. The Knicks still minus 145 favorites to win the Atlantic Division, but the Raptors, uh, playing some good team basketball. Uh, you love to see it. Uh, so, uh, let's not talk about the Maple Leafs. We're not a hockey city anymore. We are now a basketball city, uh, until the baseball season starts back up. Uh, shout out to David Puig for winning, uh, the DP World Tour event in Australia, the Australian. Championship, David Puig was 14 to 1. Uh, the Spaniard got his first win on the DP World Tour. My picks, Rasmus Nergaard Peterson and Cam Davis really, uh, weren't in it whatsoever . I think Nygaard Peterson completely missed the cut. Cam Davis, there was a moment early on Saturday where it looked like he could make a charge, he was one stroke off the lead, uh, but then he fell apart on the back nine on Saturday and then did not put up any sort of a fight on Sunday. So, uh, my picks weren't even really close. David Puig, uh, was the guy to bet on 14 to 1, the winner of the Australian championship. We do have a PGA Tour event. Uh, this week, the Hero World Challenge, so stick around for tomorrow's show for the Tuesday golf corner, and I will have picks, uh, for that. Uh, some big news finally in, uh, the MLB offseason. We've been waiting for some kind of news. Uh, it's been a very quiet offseason so far in Major League Baseball, but the Toronto Blue Jays have signed, not Bobachett, not yet, but they did sign Dylan Sea, uh, the pitcher, uh, the formerly of the San Diego Padres, a guy who his ERA wasn't great last year. He's in the fours. But his FI, a full run lower, uh, that just goes to show how bad the Padres defense is, but he's a guy who throws heat, he can throw strikeouts, uh, and that is exactly the, exactly the type of pitcher that the Jays, uh, are looking for. So that likely rounds out the rotation this year. It's probably gonna be, uh, Kevin Gosman, Trey Savage, Dylan Seis, Shane Bieber, and Jose Breos if he can come back healthy. Who knows what that means for Max Scherzer, but that did improve the Blue Jays' World Series odds. They're now up to 16 to 1 to win. Uh, the World Series, they have leapfrogged. Uh, the Padres, after taking Dylan Sea, they've now passed the Braves, the Cubs, a couple of teams in the NL, uh, still to win the AL, uh, their odds, their odds didn't prove up to 850, but still, Yankees, Mariners, Astros, and Red Sox for some reason still have better odds than the Blue Jays. Betting market not respect my Blue Jays even with Dylan Sea. Uh, but we do anxiously await to see if the Bluey. The Jays will re-sign Bo Bechett. Still the -210 favorite to do so. We have one more game for week 13 of the NFL season. It is, uh, a matchup between the New England Patriots and the New York Giants. The Patriots entered the game as a 7.5 point favorite against the team that they lost 2 Super Bowls against, uh, which brings me great joy, to be completely honest, um. Even if you win tonight, you don't get those rings, Patriots fans. Uh, the over-under for tonight is set at 46.5. Uh, if you want to bet on the touchdown market, Patriots running back Traveon Henderson is the -120 favorite to find the end zone. Uh, the most intriguing prop bet , I think for tonight is for Drake May's passing yards total, because as I talked about earlier , he has a chance to kind of retake the lead in the race for NFL MVP with a strong performance tonight. Uh, he would have. have to go over his passing yards total of 244.5. So if you think he'll do it, get his name back to the top of the odds board to win NFL MVP. Maybe bet the over on his passing yards at 244.5. Uh, I also do want to mention it will be Jackson Dart back in the lineup for the New York Giants. Two games of Jameis Winston, uh, was fun, uh, but Jackson Darrett out of concussion protocol, he will return at quarterback for the New York Giants. I have two bets for this game, uh, but if you want them, you gotta stick around till the end of the show. As we always do on Monday, I like to break down some teams that I'm buying low on and selling high on after uh the majority of this past weekend's NFL action is in the books. Still one game to go tonight, uh, but I'm gonna start with buying on the Detroit Lions who are coming off a tough loss. To the Green Bay Packers and their case for the playoffs, uh, certainly not aided by the fact the Chicago Bears continue to find ways to win games. But I still believe in the Detroit Lions. Uh, they're still a very good team from almost every metric. This is arguably the best defense that they've had in the Dan Campbell era. Uh, I think they can still return to the playoffs, and I think if they do get to the playoffs, they're gonna be an extremely dangerous team, uh, in the postseason. So I'm still buying in on the Detroit Lions, uh, despite that loss to the Packers. I think they'll rebound, uh, and I think they're actually a pretty good bet at plus money, plus 130 to make it to the NFL playoffs. I think the Bears, uh, are gonna fall off, actually. I keep saying the Bears are frauds, they keep winning. I still think the Bears are gonna miss the playoffs. But we'll see. I'm gonna buy in on the Detroit Lions after their Thanksgiving Day loss to the Packers. I'm gonna sell on the Indianapolis Colts, and if you wanna talk about a bet to miss the playoffs that north of 3 to 1 odds on the, uh, Colts to miss the NFL playoffs this year, I think. Uh, that's a good bet because the Colts have the toughest schedule in the NFL remaining. They got games against the Seahawks, Forty-Niners, Jaguars twice, and the Houston Texans. They do not have an easy game left on their schedule. Uh, their defense has regressed as the season has, has gone on, uh, and. Daniel Jones is playing on a fractured leg, which is not good. Uh, he has not looked himself for the past 4 or 5 weeks. Jonathan Taylor, who was the runaway favorite to win, uh, NFL Offensive Player of the Year, he has been shut down now 2 weeks in a row, and he's only a pick him against Jackson Smith and Jigba, uh, to win that award, so. Uh, things are not going the Colts' direction. Uh, they actually don't even have the AFC South lead. They're tied with the Jaguars at 8 and 4. The Texans, who they just lost to are 1 game behind them at 7 and 5. So, I know the Colts are like the best team in the NFL the first half of the season, but, uh, they're turning into a pumpkin. I think now is the time to sell your stock in the Colts. Uh, if they had an easy schedule the rest of the way, maybe I could still buy in on them. Uh, but, uh, that schedule's tough for a team that's regressing. So I'm selling my stock in the Indianapolis Colts. I'm gonna buy some stock here in the Cincinnati Bengals. Uh, I know this has kind of been. Uh, the Bengals' MO the past few years is that they get off to a slow start. Joe Burrow has some kind of injury . Uh, he then comes back, they go on a run, and then they barely missed the playoffs, and maybe we're, you know, uh, in for the exact same thing to happen this year. Uh, but there's no dominant team in the AFC North. The Ravens haven't looked good. Uh, the Steelers certainly haven't looked good. Uh, the Bengals just 2 games behind, uh, with 5 games to go, uh, and they're + 850 to win that division. And the Bengals schedule the rest of the way, not too difficult at all, actually. Their toughest game left is against the Bills this weekend. If they can beat the Bills, upset the Bills, their final four games against the Browns. Cardinals, Dolphins, and Ravens again, I think the Bengals are actually very much alive with Joe Burrow back to make the playoffs. I don't think they should obviously be favored to win that division, uh, but plus 850. Uh, I think I'm gonna buy in. I'm gonna buy a little stock in the Cincinnati Bengals in the final stretch of the season. Uh, in the same breath, I'm also going to, going to sell my stock in the Baltimore Ravens who. You can say that they're healthy, you can say, you know, they won 5 games in a row before this past weekend, but I don't think, uh, you can deny the fact this Ravens team, especially their offense, just does not look, uh, as good as they should. Uh, they just played the Bengals, who a lot of people say the Bengals are bottom 5 defense. They could do almost nothing against them. Uh, something's going on with Lamar Jackson, whether it's just regression or whether that injury is still bothering him, even though he says it isn't, or maybe a lack of receivers, or maybe not a great offensive line he's playing behind, but Lamar Jackson is not playing. Uh, like his usual self, and as a result, the Ravens are hurting. Also, Derrick Henry, uh, that's another point. His numbers have fallen off a cliff this year, something that no one's really talking about. Still plenty of touchdowns, uh, but his yards per carry, not good. Uh, so I'm a little bit surprised they're still -210 favorites to win that division. Uh, I want no part of that. Uh, I would also actually kind of be tempted to bet on them to miss the playoffs entirely. Uh, it is my fault at the end of the day, cause the Ravens were my preseason bet to win the Super Bowl, so it is on me. I apologize, Baltimore fans. I cursed you, uh, but I'm now getting out on the Ravens, selling my stock in the Baltimore Ravens. Uh, I'm gonna buy some stock in, and this is a weird one, but Marcus Mariota, uh, who knows how much more he'll play for the Commanders this year. Now they are out of the mix, so maybe they'll just keep Jayden Daniels sidelined. Uh, but one of my winning bets this past weekend was on the Commanders to cover the spread last night. Uh, and it was largely because of Marcus Mariota playing against one of the best defenses in, in, in the NFL. He's probably not a starting caliber quarterback, uh, but he'd be maybe a top 3, maybe top 1 in terms of backups in the NFL that you want to have in your team. And if we actually look at some advanced metrics, uh, he, he's actually posted better numbers than Jaden Daniels so far this season. Now small sample size, Jaden Daniels has been hurt for most of it, and even when he did play, he wasn't at 100%. Um, but, uh, the commanders aren't in auto fade every week just because Jayden Daniels doesn't play. I actually think there's plenty of value on betting on the Commanders in some games moving forward, especially if Marcus Mariota continues to play at quarterback for them. He's been impressive this year, uh, and it's not something anyone has, has really brought up or mentioned, so I wanna give him his flowers. Uh, Marcus Mariota, I'll buy some stock in Marcus Mariota, I'm gonna sell my stock in Dave Montgomery. Uh, the Lions are finally doing this to an extent, but I think they should do it even more. Giving the ball to David Montgomery. Uh, Jamir Gibbs is far and away the better running back of the two. When you look at yards per carry, David Montgomery is only averaging 4.4 this season. Jamir Gibbs is averaging more, uh, than 1 yard per carry more than David Montgomery. Sure, he has some power, maybe he can score on the goal line, uh , but stop giving this guy carries, especially because, like I said, I'm buying stock in the Lions. I think they can be a dangerous team down the stretch. Uh, he had 8 carries against the Packers this past weekend or on Thanksgiving. 8's too many. Give him 23, maybe 4, maximum 5 carries per game for Dave Montgomery. He's over the hill. Uh, he has regressed. Jamir Gibbs has been the better running back over the past couple of years. If you remember last year when David Montgomery was hurt. The Lions are actually better, uh, when they only gave the ball to Jamir Gibbs. I think that should be the case moving forward. So I'm selling my stock in Dave Montgomery, it's over, it's no longer a two-man backfield. This is Jamir Gibbs' backfield, and the Lions should treat it as such. We are once again gonna give a call to my friend and co-worker, Peter Dewey, see if we can agree as much as we did last week on my buying and selling takes, and also we gotta get his NBA best bet for tonight, so let's go ahead and hit the lines. Hello? Yeah. I like it. Yeah, better. What's going on? Hey, Pete, what's up? Nothing much, man. How you doing? I am doing not too bad, I suppose. The Falcons season is officially over, so that is a little bit sad, but whatever. Uh, the Jays got Dylan Sea, that's all I'm, I'm caring about right now. Let's talk NFL. Let's talk some teams and players to buy in on, sell on, and see if we can agree on a few of these. Sounds good to me . OK, the Detroit Lions are now underdogs to make the playoffs. Are you buying on the Lions , selling on the Lions? Settling on the Lions, um, for one already. They're facing an uphill battle. I don't think they're gonna beat Dallas on Thursday, um. And I, I just don't like we've seen they struggle with the Giants. They've lost to a couple of contenders, um, as of late. I just don't think this team is that good. They're so banged up they tried to bring back Frank Rag now and then he didn't even pass his physical. I'm, I'm selling the lines. I don't think they're making the playoffs. Yeah, some injuries have been an issue. Uh, offensive line, not as good as it has been. Uh, the Indianapolis Colts, uh, after their loss, uh, to the Texans this past weekend, still buying on the Colts or selling? I'm selling, especially if they lose to this game, this game against the Jaguars. Um, I think Houston is the better team, um, between them, the Colts, and the, and the Jags. I wouldn't be shocked if Houston ends up sneaking into the playoffs, and you start looking at tiebreakers in the AFC, and now the Colts have lost the tiebreaker with Houston for the time being. They play them in week 18. They don't have it against the Chiefs, um, which could end up. Looming large down the stretch, and they don't have it against the Steelers, and I'm not thinking the Steelers are gonna make the playoffs, but it doesn't help that you have none of those tiebreakers if you're the Colts, um, and somehow Jacksonville keeps winning these games . So, um, I feel like this is, uh, the week 14 is like a win or potentially go home game for them this season, especially with Daniel Jones with the fractured fibula. He doesn't look like anywhere near the player he was in the first few weeks. Yeah, we agree on that one. I made the case to bet on the Colts to miss the playoffs at this point, uh, but that was one thing I, I, I hadn't thought of is the fact they don't have the tiebreaker against the Chiefs and Steelers. So that could obviously, uh, be here, and right now don't have the tiebreaker against the Texans either. So, uh, yeah, that could be huge, uh, down the stretch . The Cincinnati Bengals, who are still alive after beating the Ravens, uh, on Thanksgiving night, buying or still selling on the Bengals? All right, I'm gonna, I'm gonna throw this out there. I know Joe Burrow didn't play all week too, but they're 3-0 when Joe Burrow plays this year. The defense stinks. I don't think they're gonna be a Super Bowl contender, but They could win the AFC North. Nobody is good in the AFC North. I'm buying just because I don't think there's any good team in the AFC North. We continuously see the Steelers and the Ravens fall over themselves when they have a chance to like really make a statement and take a lead in this division. Like, why not with Joe Burrow back? I think he's the best quarterback in that division with. looked this year, he just does not look healthy. Um, so I don't, I don't think it's impossible that the Bengals get there. They're only 2 games out with 5 to play. It's definitely doable. Yeah, plus 850, uh, at FanDuel to win that division. Certainly, yeah, certainly worth a sprinkle at that price. Uh, so since we're both buying on the Bengals, I assume you're gonna sell on the Ravens with me. Yeah, I'm selling on the Ravens, uh, unless I had them, I think 18th or 17th in my power rankings. I just, when I, when you look at like just where you're, like if we're talking about buying a team, like, oh yeah, they might make the playoffs. Do we think they're actually gonna win a playoff game? Like, I, I don't think so. They just, the team is like disjointed from the jump. Um, the defense hasn't been great, and Lamar Jackson isn't Lamar Jackson, and to be completely honest with how the rest of the offenses looked, he has to be like. level Lamar for them to win anything. So if they do get in, they're gonna win the division probably with like a 9 and 8 record, and then I think they're a first round exit. Yeah, uh, I agree with you there. Let's talk a couple of players now I have some kind of weird players to ask you about. Uh, first off, buying or selling Marcus Mariota after he almost led the Commanders to a win against your Denver Broncos last night. I think he might be the best backup quarterback in the, in the NFL and maybe should be a starter on some teams. I was just gonna say I, I'll buy him as the best backup in the NFL. I, I'm trying to think like just racking my brain like maybe Davis Mills honestly like is in that conversation, um, but he looks pretty good this year. But Mariota, I feel like for Washington he's just the perfect backup because they can run a lot of the similar stuff that they can run with Jane Daniels killed the Broncos and read option yesterday. Um, so, yeah, I mean, I'm, I'm buying him as a, as a, like a stopgap option. That Washington team is not good, so I don't wanna look too much into his 1 and 5 record as a starter this year, but, um, like if you talk about just keeping the offense afloat, he's looked pretty good this year. Yeah, 294 yards against one of the best, uh, secondaries in the NFL. Uh, alright, buying or selling on David Montgomery. And what I mean by that is, should the Lions be giving him more or less carries moving forward compared to Jamir Gibbs? That's a tough one. I almost wanna say just like keep it the same, I guess I'll, I'll, I'll slightly, slightly buy just because if Amira Saint Brown is out, I think they need to run the ball even more. Um, that means we get Jamir Gibbs involved in the passing game even more. I think that the split between the two of them, it's, it's been pretty heavily tilted to Gibbs and rightfully so. But I do think Montgomery gives you something that Gibbs doesn't in terms of like a between the tackles like power runner, um, and I also just wonder, is it better to get Jamir Gibbs in space, especially if Saint Brown's out and let him just go to work. He's had multiple games with 10 catches this year. I feel like that's a pretty decent recipe for them, especially against a Dallas defense that cannot stop the pass and has actually looked pretty good against the run. Yeah, you know what, I don't really hate that take. Run a two running back set. Let Jamir Gibbs kind of be a receiver out of the backfield and maybe let Montgomery run to the bit. I, I, I don't hate that take. Uh, we mostly agreed, Pete, today. I think this might be the most agreed, uh, most that we've agreed ever on one of these calls. Uh, so let's wrap things up. Uh, give us an NBA bet for tonight cause I don't have a bet in the NBA, so I need one detail. Yeah, I got a good one tonight. Um, I am taking Knipple, the Charlotte Hornets rookie, over 15.5 points. Um , you look at his, his numbers so far this year, he's averaging 18.4 points per game. He's shooting 47% from the field, 41.3% from 3. He's even better in the month of November. Um, he, he averaged 19.9 points per game on 14.7 shots. Um, he scored 16 or more points in 13 of his 20 games so far this season. He's facing a Brooklyn Nets team that's 29th in the NBA in defensive rating. Um, he played his. Debut game one against the Nets, scored 11 points on just 6 shots, um, and his shot volume has been way up, uh, as of late. Uh, he scored 55 of his last 7 games, he scored 20 or more points. So I think this line is way too low against the Nets team that's just absolutely awful this year. And he is in a tight race with his former, uh, Duke teammate, Cooper Flagg for Rookie of the Year too. Yeah, yeah, the, the both, uh, I mean, Cooper Flagg had a 35 point game the other day. He looked really good, but both those guys just look like ready to go polished NBA players, which is exactly what you want when you take somebody in the top five. Alright, love it, Pete. Thanks so much, man. Take care. We'll talk soon. Take care, man. I appreciate it. Alright, thank you to Peter Dewey, Con Kneppel over his points total tonight, and we agreed on a lot of different takes. I actually like his opinion and maybe uh some two running back sets now for the Lions with Aman Ras Saint Brown out for the foreseeable future. So, uh, thank you to Peter Dewey once again, giving us some great insight in the NFL and the NBA. It's time to wash away the sins from the past week of sports betting for today's edition of Sorry. Not sorry, uh, starting, I have a lot of actual things to apologize for, some season-long things that I'd like to apologize for. Starting, uh, I have to apologize to, uh, fans of the Bears and Jaguars. I actually didn't mention this earlier, I got a Bears fan. Uh, sent me a message on LinkedIn. Uh, he found my LinkedIn, he could have just followed me on Twitter, but he found my LinkedIn, uh, and sent me a message on there telling me how wrong I've been about the bears the past few weeks. Uh, he then found my email and sent me an email, and he started off the email by saying, hey, I sent you a message on LinkedIn, but just in case you don't check your LinkedIn, I wanted to send you an email as well. Uh, and then he went on to tell me how wrong I was about the bears, and I'm calling them frauds. And they continue to win, and I don't know what I'm talking about, so, you know what? Sorry to Bears fans and Jaguars fans for that matter, because I've also called them frauds. I keep calling our teams frauds, and they keep winning, so maybe I'm the fraud. Uh, so I'm sorry for fans of Bears and Jaguars, especially that guy who sent me a message on both LinkedIn and an email. Uh, you could have just followed me on Twitter, I'm a lot more, uh, available and reachable there. You can message me anytime. Uh, I'm also sorry for not taking the next step in the parlay peak. Uh, I've been now over a week trying to get the fore leg of the parlay peak, uh, and, uh, 3 of the 4 legs hit on NFL for yesterday, uh, with the leg that didn't, of course. It the Atlanta Falcons, who have once again disappointed me. So I'm sorry it's now taken me too long to hit the four-leg parlay. Hopefully we can do it tonight, but I'm sorry, uh, for that. I'm also sorry for my college football best bet this weekend, which was Texas A&M against Texas, uh, and Texas ran away with it. Uh, and another apology for an entire fan base. I keep saying that Texas stinks, and yes, maybe they won't make the college football playoff, uh, but they're a lot better. Than I thought they were, and Arch Manning is uh a much better quarterback than I thought he was. He's uh actually gotten quite a bit better as the season has gone on. So I'm sorry for my Texas A&M bet, another losing bet in college football. I'm also sorry for my, my bad golf bets. Uh, at the end of the day for a golf bet, it's an. Bright Bennett's north at 10 to 1 odds. I at least want to sweat. I want one to be, uh, in contention on the weekend. I had 4 golf bets this past weekend across the DP World Tour and the Ladies European Tour. None of them were in contention whatsoever. Those are bad bets. I'm sorry for my golf bets this past weekend. I'm not sorry for my upset picks. Uh, upset picks are exactly what they are. There are some long shot, uh, bets, and I did at least hit one. I hit the Texans to upset the Colts. So 1 for 3, not great, uh, but if I can at least hit one of my 4 upset picks, I'm not gonna apologize for it. Uh, so I'm not sorry for my upset picks this past weekend. I'm also not sorry for my Thanksgiving parlay, which did not hit, uh, that I gave out last week. Now, uh, parlays is kind of the same thing as an upset pick, especially a 5-leg parlay. Uh, six leg parlay, they're hard to hit. Uh, so, yeah, you should, that's why you should, uh, bet responsibly when betting on big parlays, especially ones like that, which had like, I think it was what, 17 to 1 odds to win. Uh, did not hit, but I'm not gonna apologize for giving out a 17 to 1 parlay. And then finally, and this is worth all of the rest, even a tune, I'm putting a tie in the loony bin, 34 more loonies in the loony bin. I continue to have faith in the Falcons, and I don't know why. Uh, they're the leg that lost my four-leg, uh, parlay peak bet over the weekend. I've bet on them several times to make the playoffs. Uh, I think last week I said I was buying in on Kirk Cousins, which might have been the stupidest thing I've said on this show. Uh, no, I just need to accept the Falcons for what they are, which is just a bad football team. So, uh, I'm putting, I'm finally putting my bias aside. The Falcons are not good. I'm sorry for telling you to bet the Falcons in several different ways, uh, this season, um, but I'm done. I'm done with the Falcons this year. The year is over, they're what, 4 and 8 now, uh, it's done. So I apologize for continuing to back my Atlanta Falcons. It will not happen anymore. Oh, there you go, uh, my sins have been wiped clean. It's time to move on to a new week and a new month. Uh, but this has been today's edition of Sorry, Not Sorry. We had a winning weekend, uh, the past few days, so credit to us, uh, for cashing in a profit. It wasn't a big profit, but we went 2 and 2 on the week. Uh, but, uh, one of the two losses was just a $10 bet on the Titans to pull off the big upset against the Jaguars. I took a shot, it didn't come through, that's why I only put $10 on it, and then lost Texas A&M against Texas, which I've already apologized for. Uh, but then the other two bets, uh, were winners, the Vikings Seahawks under 41.5. Uh, the Vikings got shut out. Uh, Max Brosmer, uh, was not the prince that was promised from Minnesota. Uh, it turns out, uh, and then the Texans plus 4.5 against the Colts , maybe I should have just made that my upset pick, uh, for the weekend and just left Titans off the board. But regardless, 2 and 2 for a profit of $12.18 that brings our season record up to $30.93. I've given a lot of bad bets, uh, on this show, uh, but, uh, since we started the show in September, I am profitable. Uh, so I will take that, at least in terms of the picks I give out, uh, for a daily basis at the end of the show. So, let's see if we can keep things rolling tonight, 4 bets for Monday night's action. 2 for Monday Night Football, 2 in the National Hockey League. Uh, let's get into them, starting with the Giants and Patriots, the final game of week 13 of the NFL season. Uh, I will take the over. Uh, I don't want to lay the points of the Patriots, to be honest. I don't really want to take the points of this Giants team either. I don't really know really what to expect from Jackson Dart. So I'm gonna bet the over because both offenses have been far better than, uh, their defenses so far this season. For example, if you look at offensive DVOA, these two teams rank 11th and 18th. If you look at defensive DVOA 27th and 28th. Uh, so I'm surprised that the total is in the mid-40s, uh , in a game with two teams who are much better offensively, uh, than defensively. Also, it is worth noting just how bad the Giants' defense has been amongst the worst in the NFL. 31st in opponent EPA, 30th in opponent success rate. So give me the over 46.5 between the Giants and the Patriots. I'm also going to back, uh, the Patriots running back, if you remember this, uh, was actually, no, cause I didn't do the video. But if you read the player prop countdown, which I tweeted out and wrote at SI this past weekend. One of my top ranked player props was Trayvon Henderson to go over his rushing yards total, so I'm gonna bet that for tonight. It's over 63.5 at -114. Uh, just bet on whatever running back is facing the Giants' defense cause the Giants cannot stop the run. They allow 5.9 yards per carry. That is 0.6 more yards per rush than any other defense allows in the NFL. They're also last in, uh, opponent rush EPA, last in opponent rush success rate. So as long as Mike Vrabel gives the ball to Trayvon Henderson, I think he's gonna have a big game tonight. Trayvon Henderson over 63.5 rushing yards at -114. Switching over to the ice, uh, I will take the Pittsburgh Penguins, plus 125, uh, as underdogs, uh, against the Philadelphia Flyers. Penguins have been big moneymakers for me, uh, this season. I still think they are continuously underrated by the betting market. 10th in the NHL in expected goal differential so far this season. The Flyers are 25th, uh, and the Flyers have also struggled to create offensive scoring chances. Uh, they're just 27th in high dangerous scoring chances per game. So, uh, if the betting market is gonna continue to set the Penguins as underdogs, uh, against inferior teams, I'm gonna continue to take the Penguins as underdogs against inferior teams. I'll take the Penguins plus 125 against the Philadelphia Flyers. I'll also take the Ducks and Blues under 6.5 at -134. I don't think any game involving the Saint Louis Blues should have a total this high. Uh, they have the 3rd lowest expected goals against at 2.72 per, uh, 60 minutes, fifth lowest expected goals 4, at 2.76 per 60 minutes. Uh, so they are a very good defensive team, very bad offensive team. Now, the reason why the total is so high is because Jordan Bennington has not been good so far this season. They need him to play better tonight. Uh, but, uh, it is gonna help him that the Ducks shooting has cooled off of late. I talked about this at the top of the show. The Ducks had a very good record to start the season, still have a good record, but a lot of those wins came, uh, because of, uh, irregularly, irregularly high shooting percentage. They're the best shooting team in the league for a long time. Their shooting has. Cooled off lately. They're now 25th in shooting percentage over each team's last 10 games. So Jordan Bennington should get aided by some, uh, duck shooting that is regressing. So I'll take the under 6.5 minus 1134 between the Ducks and the Blues. Uh, so those are my four bets for tonight. Let's take a peek in the safe to see what I have to bet with. And I think, I think I get some bonus money. Woo! If you remember, we did some American Thanksgiving trivia, uh, last week, I earned myself an extra $20 so I have $120 to bet with . Uh, tonight, um, I kinda do wanna go more NHL just cause I've been so much better in the NHL this year than the NFL to be completely fair. Uh, so I'm gonna do. $30 on the Penguins plus $125 against the Flyers, $30 actually, maybe, I could just do $30 on everything. Yeah, we're, yeah, cause you have 120. I have 120 weighted a little higher. Yeah, so let's go 120, yeah, let's go 40, uh, 40 on the Penguins plus 125 against the Flyers, 40 on the Ducks Blues under 6.5. That leaves me with 40, uh, so then I'll go 20/20 on the two NFL plays. So I'm going heavy in the NHL tonight, uh, but I need to evaluate things, and I've just been significantly better. In the NHL than I have been betting on the NFL this season, so let's wait accordingly. So, $40 on the two NHL picks , $20 on the two NFL picks. This has been Play It Safe, presented by FanDuel, but stick around cause I still gotta give you my parlay of the day. We're trying to take the next step on the parlay peak. Tonight is the night, my friends. I think it is the night when I take the next step on the parlay peak. We've hit the two-leg parlay, we've hit the 3-leg parlay, it's time to finally hit the four-leg parlay. We almost did. Uh, over the weekend, it was Alabama Money line against Auburn that came through. Uh, it was, uh, what, what were the other two? The Bills against the Steelers were one, and was it the 49ers, I think, against the Browns, another NFL one, and then, of course, uh, the Atlanta Falcons lost, uh, on a 56 yard game-winning field goal by the Jets. Not good. Uh, so because the Falcons lost. Uh, that lost the parlay, um, but guess what, it is a good day to have a good day with your parlay . Uh, so let's, uh, hit a four-leg parlay for tonight. Uh, I always like to do same game parlays, and we have a primetime football game to bet on, so that's what I'm gonna do tonight . Uh, now, the Patriots, I do like the Patriots, but we're gonna, for the sake of the parlay, uh, tease them down a little bit. So the first leg of the parlay is, I should have just wrote an E, but now I have to write out the entire thing of Patriots. We're gonna tease it down -3.5, so we're gonna buy a few points for the sake of the parlay. Remember, my rule is the odds have to be -250 or longer to make things a little bit more difficult for myself. Delay, if you tease it down to -3.5 on the Patriots are getting -210. Uh, I'm also going to take Trayvon Henderson. You, uh, know that I already like him to go over his rushing yards total. Uh, but once again, we're gonna make things a little bit easier for the sake of the parlay, so we can hit a winner here. Trayvon Henderson. Once again, I probably just should, should have wrote like his initials or something, 60+ rushing yards, 60+. Rush Uh, that looks like a B, but it's a 6. that's at -146. So a little bit of a risk with that one. We're also gonna go Jackson Dart, who's back in the lineup. I'll just write Dart. I think he's gonna take off with his legs, primetime game we've seen over the history, uh, of the, of at least the betting history of the NFL quarterbacks. Uh. Average more rushing yards per game, uh, when they play in prime time. I don't know if it's the bright lights or they just think, uh, the moment is bigger, uh, but Jackson Dart, he likes to take off with his legs, will go 25+ rushing yards, uh, for Jackson Dart at -182. Uh, I also just think against his Patriots defense, he's gonna have to take off to run. Uh, at some point tonight, I think, especially if the Patriots take a lead, and then they drop their guys back, and it's garbage time, and he has no one to throw to, but he has wide open field in front of him, maybe he'll just take off and get a 25 yards, and then Drake May. I'm gonna bet on him. 2 + passing touchdowns. I'm not gonna write passing touchdowns, but you heard me. Nah! I hate betting on the Patriots in any fashion, but I gotta put my biases aside. Maybe Drake May gets back, uh, to being the betting favorite to win NFL MVP after tonight. So four-leg parlay, that comes out to plus. 418, 18, plus 418 uh for my four-leg parlay night. Patriots minus 3.5, Trayvon Henderson, 60+ rushing yards, Jackson Dart, 25 + rushing yards, Drake May 2 + passing touchdowns, plus 418 odds. That is my four-leg parlay for tonight. This has been Making Moves with Mac presented by FanDuel. Best of luck to all of your bets tonight, and I'll see you all tomorrow.