Mariners vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, April 16

The Seattle Mariners are on the verge of getting swept by the San Diego Padres after blowing a 6-0 lead on Wednesday night. Their last chance to avoid the sweep is Thursday night when these two teams wrap up their three-game series.

The Padres are off to a strong 12-6 start to the season, but they're still two games behind the Dodgers. They need to keep racking up wins if they want to keep pace.

Let's run into the odds and my best bets for tonight's series finale.

Mariners vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Mariners -1.5 (+135)
Padres +1.5 (-163)

Moneyline

Mariners -120
Padres +100

Total

OVER 8.5 (-110)
UNDER 8.5 (-110)

Mariners vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

Seattle: Luis Castillo, RHP (0-0, 6.92 ERA)
San Diego: Walker Buehler, RHP (0-1, 4.97 ERA)

Mariners vs. Padres How to Watch

Date: Thursday, April 16
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
Venue: Petco Park
How to Watch (TV): MLB Network, Padres.TV Presented by UC San Diego Health, Mariners.TV
Mariners record: 8-11
Padres record: 12-6

Mariners vs. Padres Best Prop Bet

Walker Buehler OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-114)

Walker Buehler has recorded four strikeouts in two straight starts, and now he gets to face a Mariners team that has struggled with striking out so far this season. They have a strikeout rate of 25%, which is the seventh-highest strikeout rate in baseball.

Mariners vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

In today's edition of Betting $100 Every Day for a Year, I broke down why I'm betting on the UNDER in tonight's game:

You may look at the ERAs of both Luis Castillo and Walker Buehler and think tonight's game is a no-brainer OVER, but if you look a bit deeper, it could be the time to bet the UNDER. Castillo has a 6.92 ERA but a 3.16 FIP through his first three starts. Buehler has a 4.97 ERA but a 3.87 FIP. That tells me neither pitcher has been as bad as their ERA indicates, and we could see some positive regression from them both.

The Mariners and Padres also have two of the best bullpens in the Majors so far this season. The Mariners rank third in bullpen ERA at 2.88, while the Padres rank fifth at 3.04.

Finally, neither offense has posted impressive numbers so far, ranking just 14th and 15th in wRC+.

Give me the UNDER in this interleague matchup.

Pick: UNDER 8.5 (-110) via DraftKings

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