Mariners vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, June 25

Seattle is favored in the rubber match of this series.

The Seattle Mariners and pitcher Bryce Miller are favored on Thursday. | Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

Thursday afternoon’s MLB action features a rubber match between the Seattle Mariners and Pittsburgh Pirates after a commanding 11-1 win by Pittsburgh on Wednesday. 

The Pirates are .500 so far this season (40-40), but they’re set as home dogs in this series finale with MLB at the halfway point of the campaign. 

Bubba Chandler (4.62 ERA) has struggled a bit for the Pirates this season, and he gets the ball against Seattle Bryce Miller (1.58 ERA), who is making his eighth start of 2026. 

Miller has an expected ERA in the 99th percentile this season, and he’s allowed two or fewer runs in every one of his outings.

So, should bettors take the Mariners to win this series finale on the road?

Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for this matinee matchup. 

Mariners vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Mariners -1.5 (+112)
• Pirates +1.5 (-135)

Moneyline

• Mariners: -149
• Pirates: +124

Total

• 8.5 (Over -107/Under -112)

Mariners vs. Pirates Probable Pitchers 

• Seattle: Bryce Miller (3-1, 1.58 ERA)
• Pittsburgh: Bubba Chandler (2-7, 4.62 ERA)

Mariners vs. Pirates How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, June 25
• Time: 12:35 p.m. EST
• Venue: PNC Park
• How to Watch (TV): Mariners.TV, MLB.TV
• Mariners record: 41-40
• Pirates record: 40-40

Mariners vs. Pirates Best MLB Prop Bets

Mariners Best MLB Prop Bet

• Dominic Canzone to Hit a Home Run (+419)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run props column why Canzone is undervalued against Pittsburgh: 

Seattle Mariners outfielder Dominic Canzone is hitting .338 with seven home runs over the last four weeks, pushing him to 12 home runs in the 2026 season. 

So, I don’t mind taking a shot on him against Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Bubba Chandler, who enters this start with a 4.62 ERA and nine home runs allowed in the 2026 season.

Canzone has done most of his damage against right-handed pitching, hitting .280 with 11 home runs and a .908 OPS. He’s cooled off a bit over the last week (1-for-15), but he still has four home runs in his last 11 games (10 starts).

Mariners vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

The Mariners are just 4-3 this season in Miller’s seven starts, but the right-hander has some insane advanced numbers. 

He ranks in the 99th percentile in expected ERA, the 94th percentile in expected BAA and the 97th percentile in hard-hit percentage. Miller also has one of the best strikeout-to-walk ratios in the league.  

So, I don’t mind taking him and the Mariners to win this game against Chandler, who has struggled for most of this season.

Pittsburgh is just 4-11 in Chandler’s 15 appearances this season, and he sits in the 46th percentile in expected ERA. 

Seattle has a pretty high floor with Miller, especially since he’s allowed just seven earned runs and 23 hits in seven starts. I’ll ride with the road team in this series finale. 

Pick: Mariners Moneyline (-149 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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