Marlins vs. Reds Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Friday, Aug. 14

The Miami Marlins are just 2.5 games out of a playoff spot and are two games over .500 heading into Friday’s series opener against the Cincinnati Reds.

Cincy is 5.5 games out of the final wild card spot in the National League, but it has by far the worst run differential (minus-77) of any team still in the hunt. So, Elly De La Cruz and Co. are facing an uphill battle to make the final playoff field this season.

On Friday, the Reds find themselves as favorites with ace Chase Burns (2.61 ERA) on the mound against former Cy Young award winner Sandy Alcantara (3.52 ERA). Both of these starters have put together impressive 2026 seasons, but Alcantara has actually been better as of late, posting three straight outings without a run allowed.

Can he outduel Burns in Cincy?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this series opener on Friday night.

Marlins vs. Reds Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Marlins -1.5 (+169)
Reds +1.5 (-207)

Moneyline

Marlins: +103
Reds: -111

Total

8 (Over -105/Under -114)

Marlins vs. Reds Probable Pitchers

Miami: Sandy Alcantara (13-6, 3.52 ERA)
Cincinnati: Chase Burns (13-2, 2.61 ERA)

Marlins vs. Reds How to Watch

Date: Friday, Aug. 14
Time: 6:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Great American Ball Park
How to Watch (TV): Marlins.TV/Reds.TV
Marlins record: 62-60
Reds record: 58-62

Marlins vs. Reds Best MLB Prop Bets

Marlins Best MLB Prop Bet

Sandy Alcantara UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed (-105 at Fanatics)

This season, Alcantara has allowed 150 hits in 163.2 innings of work, ranking in the 40th percentile in MLB in expected batting average against.

On Friday, he steps into a great matchup against a Cincinnati team that ranks dead last in MLB in batting average, Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) and 28th in BABIP (batting average on balls in play).

Alcantara has tossed 20 scoreless innings over his last three starts, allowing four, three and four hits in those matchups. Overall, he’s allowed five or fewer hits in just over half of his outings in 2026 (13 of 25).

Since the Reds have struggled so much at the plate, I don’t mind taking the UNDER here and betting on Alcantara’s recent hot streak continuing.

Marlins vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

I’m going to stay away from taking a side in this matchup with two elite starters on the mound.

Miami has won 16 of Alcantara’s 25 starts this season while the Reds are an impressive 16-6 in Burns’ outings despite being under .500 in the 2026 campaign.

So, I’m going to take the UNDER in the first five innings of this matchup with two aces on the bump.

Alcantara has tossed 20 straight scoreless innings, pushing his expected ERA to the 66th percentile in 2026, and he’s allowed three or fewer runs in 18 of his 25 outings in 2026.

Burns has been even better, despite the fact that he allowed five runs in his last start. The Reds star ranks in the 81st percentile in expected ERA and the 85th percentile in expected batting average against, allowing two or fewer earned runs in 18 of his 22 starts.

The Reds have dominated Burns’ outings despite scoring the fifth-fewest runs in MLB this season.

Both of these starters should get through five frames on Friday, and I expect both offenses to struggle a bit until they exit.

Pick: First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-154 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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