Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, Nov. 12

Cooper Flagg and LaMelo Ball go head-to-head in a marquee matchup in the NBA on Thursday, as the Dallas Mavericks hit the road to play the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Dallas has won three games in a row and is off to a 7-4 start to the season, riding the duo of Flagg and Kyrie Irving to some impressive offensive numbers (12th in offensive rating).

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves have won four games in a row and are 8-3 through their first 11 games despite Anthony Edwards (knee) missing most of the season. Ant Man won’t be back for a couple of months, which puts a lot of pressure on Ball, Ayo Dosunmu and Jaden McDaniels to make a leap scoring the ball.

The Timberwolves have really won with a top-five defense this season, anchored by veteran Rudy Gobert. Now, the Wolves are set as favorites at home against this Dallas team that has play-in hopes – and potentially more – in the 2026-27 season.

New head coach Dusty May has guided Dallas to a plus-4.5 net rating this season, but a lot of its damage has come at home (5-2) through the first three weeks. Can the Mavs pull off an upset in Minnesota on Thursday night?

Let’s dive into the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this Western Conference battle on Thursday.

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Mavs +5.5 (-106)
Timberwolves -5.5 (-114)

Moneyline

Mavs: +184
Timberwolves: -222

Total

227.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Nov. 12
Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Target Center
How to Watch (TV): NBA TV
Mavs record: 7-4
Timberwolves record: 8-3

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Injury Reports

Mavs Injury Report

Tarik Biberovic – out
Sergio de Larrea – out
Morez Johnson Jr. – probable
Dereck Lively II – out
Caleb Martin – available

Timberwolves Injury Report

Joan Beringer – available
Anthony Edwards – out
Donte DiVincenzo – out

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet

Mavs Best NBA Prop Bet

Cooper Flagg OVER 37.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I love this prop for Flagg against Minnesota:

Flagg has gotten off to a great start in his second NBA season, averaging 25.9 points, 6.9 rebounds and 6.9 assists per game (39.7 PRA) while shooting 50.0 percent from the field and 29.2 percent from 3.

Once the 3-point shot comes along for the 2025 No. 1 overall pick, he’s going to be one of the most dynamic offensive players in the game. Still, Flagg has put up huge numbers this season, picking up 37 or more points, rebounds and assists in six of his 10 games. He only finished nine of those games, as a shoulder injury knocked him out of the second game of the season against Indiana.

So, Flagg has hit the line at a pretty high rate in the 2026-27 season.

While the Timberwolves are a top-five defense, it’s hard not to bet on Flagg’s usage, especially after he dropped 43 points against Indiana on Nov. 9.

Flagg is taking 18.0 shots per game and averaging 12.2 potential assists and 12.5 rebound chances per game. That gives him a really high floor in this market, even against one of the best defenses in the NBA.

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Prediction and Pick

Dallas has hit the UNDER in eight of 11 games in the 2026-27 season, and both of these teams rank in the top 10 in the league in defensive rating.

So, I think the UNDER is a great bet, especially since both teams have been elite against the spread in the 2026-27 campaign.

Dallas has failed to clear 227.5 points in eight games this season while the Timberwolves (6-5 to the UNDER) have played four games in a row below this total.

The Wolves have been forced to rely on their defense more with Edwards out, and they rank sixth in the NBA in opponent points per game. Dallas is right there with them, ranking ninth in the league through 11 games.

I’m expecting a bit of a defensive slugfest on Thursday night.

Pick: UNDER 227.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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