Mercury vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Wednesday, May 27

It’s been a rough start to the season for the Phoenix Mercury, as they’ve lost three games in a row heading into Wednesday’s matchup with the New York Liberty.

New York is also under .500 through seven games, losing to Dallas and Portland over Memorial Day weekend in a back-to-back.

After missing the start of the season, Sabrina Ionescu and Satou Sabally are back for the Liberty, but the team is still finding its way, ranking seventh in net rating, seventh in offensive rating and eighth in defensive rating this season.

Phoenix lost Sabally to New York in the offseason, yet it still has a positive net rating despite a 2-5 record. Can the Mercury hang around as road underdogs on Wednesday night?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this matchup, as both teams look to get back in the mix for a playoff spot.

Mercury vs. Liberty Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Mercury +5.5 (-102)
Liberty -5.5 (-118)

Moneyline

Mercury: +185
Liberty: -225

Total

172.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mercury vs. Liberty How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, May 27
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Barclays Center
How to Watch (TV): Arizona’s Family 3TV, Liberty Live, USA Network, WWOR-TV
Mercury record: 2-5
Liberty record: 3-4

Mercury vs. Liberty Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

Monique Akoa Makani -- probable
Sami Whitcomb -- out

Liberty Injury Report

Sabrina Ionescu -- questionable
Satou Sabally -- questionable
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton -- questionable
Marine Fauthoux -- out

Mercury vs. Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bets

Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bet

Sabrina Ionescu 25+ Points, Rebounds and Assists (-165)

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Ionescu is a great prop target in her second game of the season:

Sabrina Ionescu has only played in one game in the 2026 season, shooting 4-for-15 from the field against the Dallas Wings on Sunday.

The star guard still finished with 11 points, five rebounds and seven dimes, nearly hitting this prop in just over 30 minutes of action. So, with a better shooting night, I expect Ionescu to be in play to finish with 25 or more points, rebounds and assists against Phoenix.

The Mercury are just 10th in the WNBA in defensive rating and are 14th in opponent 3s made per game, which should help Ionescu get to the bread and better of her offensive attack. The star guard averaged 18.2 points, 4.9 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game last season, so she’s more than capable of clearing this line in her second game of 2026.

Mercury vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

The Mercury only have two wins this season, but they are right behind the Liberty in net rating (plus-1.3 to plus-1.9) through seven games.

Four of Phoenix’s five losses have come by single digits, and the Liberty (2-5 against the spread) haven’t exactly obliterated the competition in 2026.

New York is playing a third game in four nights, and it’s fallen out of the top five in offensive, defensive and net rating.

While New York has a star-studded starting lineup, the bench has some major questions, especially on offense, at this point in the season. On top of that, the Liberty have won just one of four games at Barclays Center.

I’m going to take the points in this matchup, as the Mercury may be better than their record shows at this point in the season.

Pick: Mercury +5.5 (-102 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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