Mercury vs. Mystics Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Sunday, Aug. 9

The young Washington Mystics have been one of the most exciting teams in the league in the 2026 season, and they’re currently on a six-game winning streak that has propelled them to the No. 6 seed in the league.

Now, they’re set as 1.5-point favorites at home on Sunday against the Phoenix Mercury, who are a long shot to make the playoffs just one season after reaching the WNBA Finals. Phoenix traded for star guard Kelsey Plum at the deadline, but it is 1-2 since she arrived and now nine games under .500.

The Mercury are also 7.5 games out of the eighth and final playoff spot with just 11 games left for them in the regular season. So, they need to win as many games as possible – and get some help – just to get into the postseason.

That’s going to be tough to do against Washington, which is an impressive 10-6 at home in the 2026 season. Sunday’s matchup is the first of three meetings between these teams over the final few weeks of the regular season.

So, who has the edge?

Let’s check out the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this interconference clash on Aug. 9.

Mercury vs. Mystics Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Mercury +1.5 (-105)
Mystics -1.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Mercury: +110
Mystics: -130

Total

167.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Mercury vs. Mystics How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Aug. 9
Time: 3:00 p.m. EST
Venue: CareFirst Arena
How to Watch (TV): Arizona’s Family 3TV, Merc+, MNMT, WNBA League Pass
Mercury record: 12-21
Mystics record: 18-12

Mercury vs. Mystics Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

None to report

Mystics Injury Report

None to report

Mercury vs. Mystics Best WNBA Prop Bets

Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

Kelsey Plum OVER 18.5 Points (-111)

The Mercury may be a long shot to make the playoffs, but it isn’t due to Plum’s play since being added to the roster.

The five-time All-Star is averaging 21.3 points on 12.0 shots per game while shooting 58.3 percent from the field and 46.7 percent from 3 since being traded. She’s scored 19 or more points in each of those games, including her first matchup where she came off the bench.

Plum is averaging 23.4 points per game in the 2026 season, and the lefty has proven she’s one of the best pure scorers in the WNBA. After taking 16 shots in her last game, Plum is clearly stepping into a bigger role in this offense as the Mercury attempt to make a playoff push.

Even though Washington has one of the best defenses in the WNBA, I’m willing to trust Plum at this price since she’s averaging far more points in the 2026 season.

Mercury vs. Mystics Prediction and Pick

A six-game winning streak has helped the Mystics solidify themselves as a true playoff contender this season, and they’ve beaten some good teams (Atlanta, Las Vegas, Golden State and Dallas) during that stretch.

So, I expected them to be favored by more at home against a Phoenix team that has a minus-4.0 net rating this season and is nine games under .500. The Mercury have lost back-to-back games even with Kelsey Plum in the fold, and they’re an extreme long shot to make the playoffs in 2026.

Plus, over their last 10 games, the Mercury have a net rating of minus-7.9, which ranks 12th in the league.

Washington isn’t a great offensive team (14th in offensive rating), but it does rank third in defensive rating this season. Over its last 10 games, Washington is 8-2 with the fifth-best net rating in the WNBA.

The Mystics are 10-6 against the spread at home this season, and they’ve been rolling since the All-Star break.

I’ll gladly bet on them at this price on Sunday afternoon.

Pick: Mystics Moneyline (-130 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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