Mercury vs. Sparks Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Wednesday, July 22

The Phoenix Mercury snapped a long losing streak on Sunday against the Connecticut Sun, and they’ll close out the first half with a matinee matchup against Dearica Hamby and the Los Angeles Sparks.

Los Angeles is still without Kelsey Plum (leg), and it has struggled mightily without her, going 3-10 in the 13 games that she’s missed. As a result, the Sparks hold the No. 10 seed in the W and are on a four-game skid.

Phoenix is just two games behind the Sparks at this point in the regular season, and it actually has a better net rating (minus-4.6) than Los Angeles (minus-6.1).

Oddsmakers have set the Sparks at home in their final game before the All-Star break, but L.A. is two games under .500 at crypto.com Arena and three games under .500 against Western Conference teams in 2026.

So, is this a spot where the Mercury can pull off an upset win?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, my favorite prop bet and a prediction for Wednesday’s contest.

Mercury vs. Sparks Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Mercury +1.5 (-112)
Sparks -1.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Mercury: -102
Sparks: -118

Total

178.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mercury vs. Sparks How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, July 22
Time: 3:00 p.m. EST
Venue: crypto.com Arena
How to Watch (TV): Arizona’s Family 3TV, Merc+, Spectrum Sports Network, WNBA League Pass
Mercury record: 9-18
Sparks record: 10-15

Mercury vs. Sparks Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

None to report

Sparks Injury Report

Kelsey Plum -- out
Kiana Williams -- questionable

Mercury vs. Sparks Best WNBA Prop Bets

Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

Kahleah Copper 20+ Points (-139)

Mercury guard Kahleah Copper has been asked to take on a massive role on offense this season, averaging 20.5 points on 15.9 shots per game.

She’s shooting just 42.0 percent from the field, but Copper has 20 or more points in eight of her last 10 contests. On top of that, she dropped 41 points in her last meeting with the Sparks and had 22 in their first matchup.

L.A. not only is 14th in the league in defensive rating, but it allows the most points per game in the WNBA.

Since Copper is going to get a ton of shots on Wednesday, I think she’s a must-bet at this number, which is set right around her season average.

Mercury vs. Sparks Prediction and Pick

This season, these teams have combined for 213 points (in overtime) and 185 points in two meetings.

While Phoenix has hit the UNDER in 10 of 14 road games in 2026, I think the OVER (8-4 in Sparks’ home games) is the play on Wednesday.

Both of these teams ranks in the bottom five in the league in defensive rating, and the Sparks allow the most points per game in the W.

Los Angeles loves to play with pace (No. 2 in the WNBA), and that has contributed to it hitting the OVER in 68 percent of its games in 2026.

Now, there is some risk involved here since both of these teams are in the bottom five in the league in offensive rating over their last 10 games, but the Sparks have combined for 179 or more points in eight of their last 11 contests.

On top of that, L.A. is still sixth in the W in points per game despite not being the most efficient offensive team.

Pick: OVER 178.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $200 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.

Add us as a preferred source on Google