Mercury vs. Valkyries Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for WNBA Commissioner’s Cup

Bettors should look to the UNDER in this Western Conference battle.

Phoenix Mercury guard-forward Kahleah Copper is a solid prop target on Tuesday. | John Jones-Imagn Images

The 2026 season has been a rough one so far for the Phoenix Mercury, as they look nothing like the team that made the WNBA Finals in the 2025 season. 

Still, Kahleah Copper and company have won two games in a row heading into a Commissioner’s Cup battle with the Golden State Valkyries on Tuesday night.

Golden State has dropped back-to-back games to fall to 6-5 in the 2026 season, and it may not be a lock for the playoffs after posting one of the best net ratings in the WNBA through the first few weeks.

Veronica Burton and the Valkyries are heavily favored at home in this matchup, and they’re looking to get a comfortable win against a Mercury team that is just 4-8 against the spread this season. 

Let’s examine the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for these Commissioner’s Cup clash on Tuesday, June 9. 

Mercury vs. Valkyries Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Mercury +8.5 (-108)
• Valkyries -8.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Mercury: +275
• Valkyries: -345

Total

• 161.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Mercury vs. Valkyries How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, June 9
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Chase Center
• How to Watch (TV): Arizona Family Sports Network, Merc+, WNBA League Pass
• Mercury record: 4-8
• Valkyries record: 6-5

Mercury vs. Valkyries Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

• Kahleah Copper -- questionable
• Alyssa Thomas -- probable
• Sami Whitcomb -- out

Valkyries Injury Report

• None to report

Mercury vs. Valkyries Best WNBA Prop Bets

Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Kahleah Copper 18+ Points (-138)

Mercury guard Kahleah Copper hasn’t shot the ball well in the 2026 season, knocking down just 33.3 percent of her shots from the field and 20.3 percent of her 3-pointers. Still, she’s scored 18 or more points in six of her 11 games, averaging 18.2 points per game.

Copper’s shooting numbers are going to turn around at some point – she’s too good of a player to shoot this poorly all season – and she’s taking a whopping 16.6 shots per game in 2026. 

I’ll trust her against a Golden State team that has slipped to sixth in the W in defensive rating in 2026. 

Mercury vs. Valkyries Prediction and Pick

These two teams are notoriously slow-paced, and I think that sets up well for the UNDER on Tuesday night.

The Mercury are 11th in the WNBA in pace overall and 14th in pace on the road while the Valkyries rank dead last in the league in pace. Golden State has hit the OVER in eight of 11 games, but a slowed tempo should produce a game around 150 to 160 points.

After all, the Valkyries are eighth in the W in points per game while Phoenix is 11th in the 2026 season. 

The Mercury also have the No. 2 defensive rating in the league on the road this season, which has led to six of their seven road games hitting the UNDER. I expect a similar result in this Western Conference clash on Tuesday.  

Pick: UNDER 161.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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