Mets vs. Nationals Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Wednesday, May 20

The New York Mets and Washington Nationals split the first two games of their series this week, and they’ve scored a ton of runs in the process.

Now, on Wednesday night, the Mets are slight favorites on the road with rookie Zach Thornton set to make his MLB debut.

A fifth-round pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, Thornton posted a 3.16 ERA across seven starts (37.0 innings) in AA and AAA this season. He struck out 40 batters in those outings, leading to New York giving him a chance to start against a division rival tonight.

Washington will counter with struggling veteran Zack Littell, who has a 6.10 ERA and has been one of the worst starters in MLB in 2026.

Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this NL East battle on May 20.

Mets vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Mets -1.5 (+124)
Nationals +1.5 (-149)

Moneyline

Mets: -126
Nationals: +105

Total

9.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Mets vs. Nationals Probable Pitchers

New York: Zach Thornton (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
Washington: Zack Littell (2-4, 6.10 ERA)

Mets vs. Nationals How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, May 20
Time: 6:45 p.m. EST
Venue: Nationals Park
How to Watch (TV): SNY, Nationals.TV
Mets record: 21-27
Nationals record: 24-25

Mets vs. Nationals Best MLB Prop Bets

Mets Best MLB Prop Bet

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+289)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks column – Daily Dinger – why Soto may go yard for the second night in a row:

Juan Soto is hitting .370 with three home runs over the last seven days, and he continues to wreak havoc against right-handed pitching.

Soto has a .342 batting average, six home runs and 1.073 OPS against righties, and he’s facing one of the worst right-handers in MLB in Littell on Wednesday night.

Littell has given up 14 home runs in nine starts this season, posting a 6.10 ERA in the process. His advanced numbers aren’t any better, as he sits in the first percentile in expected ERA, the third percentile in expected batting average against the fifth percentile in hard-hit percentage and the 26th percentile in ground-ball percentage.

So, Soto and the Mets should have a field day at the plate, and they’ve scored 22 runs in two games already in this series. Plus, after Littell, the Nationals have a shaky bullpen (4.96 ERA) that has already given up 34 homers in 2026.

The Mets star has a homer and a double in nine at-bats against Littell in his career, and I can’t pass up Soto during this recent hot stretch. He’s 4-for-9 in this series and hit his seventh homer of the season on Tuesday night.

Mets vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

The first two games in this series have been absolutely insane on the offensive end.

The Mets scored 16 runs in Game 1 (these teams combined for 23 runs) before the Nationals responded by knocking around Nolan McLean in a 9-6 win on Tuesday.

So, with this starting pitching matchup, I think the OVER is a must-bet on Wednesday night.

The OVER has hit in 67.3 percent of the Nationals’ games this season, which is easily the best record in the league. The Mets have hit the OVER in less than half of their games, but Littell is one of the easiest starters the team will face all season.

Not only does he rank in the first percentile in expected ERA, but Littell has given up nearly a run per inning (35 in 41.1 innings of work). On top of that, he has a shaky bullpen (4.96 ERA) behind him.

The Mets have a much better bullpen (3.36 ERA), but this is a tough spot for Thornton in his MLB debut against a Washington team that is first in runs scored, fifth in OPS and fifth in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) in the 2026 season.

I expect that we’ll see a ton of fireworks on offense in Wednesday’s rivalry matchup.

Pick: OVER 9.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $100 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.

Add us as a preferred source on Google