Miami Dolphins Win Total Projection for 2026 Season (Dolphins Will be Worst Team in NFL)

You have to respect a team that fully commits to a rebuild, and that's exactly what the Miami Dolphins are doing this season.

The Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel era is officially over in Miami. Tagovailoa is now in Atlanta, and McDaniel is the offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Chargers. Jeff Hafley has taken over as the head coach, and the roster has seen some significant turnover.

As a result, the Dolphins are expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season. Let's take a look at their projected win total.

2026 Miami Dolphins Projected Win Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

OVER 4.5 Wins (+122)
UNDER 4.5 Wins (-146)

The Dolphins' win total is set at 4.5, with the UNDER juiced to -146. That means there's a 59.35% implied probability that the Dolphins will finish at 4-13 or worse. The only team with a lower projected win total is the Arizona Cardinals at 3.5, but I made the case in 32 Bets for 32 Teams that the Dolphins will finish with the worst record.

The Dolphins are doing a rebuild the right way. There is no question that they have turned this roster over and have few players left who can lead them to wins. The bright side is that fans have something to look forward to in the years to come; the bad news is that this is going to be a tough year to watch for the Miami faithful.

The Dolphins have Malik Willis at quarterback, De'Von Achane at running back, and their best receiver is Malik Washington. Defensively, they're a disaster and might just be the worst unit in the entire NFL. I'm also not a believer in first-year head coach Jeff Hafley. On top of all that, they have to play in the AFC East, which has the Buffalo Bills and the defending AFC champions, the New England Patriots.

The Dolphins will enter the year with the second-hardest schedule in the league based on their opponent's projected win totals, meaning wins will be few and far between even if they get the most out of their depleted roster.

Unless Willis turns out to exceed expectations at quarterback by a wide margin, I struggle to see how they'll reach 5+ wins. I'll bet the under on their win total.

Prediction: UNDER 4.5 Wins (-146) via DraftKings

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