Michigan State vs. Michigan Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 10

Michigan is favored against Michigan State in the 2026 edition of the Battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The 2026 edition of the Battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy is set to take place this weekend, and Michigan State is still looking for its first Big Ten victory of the season.

A conference championship and a berth in the College Football Playoff are out of the question for the Wolverines at this point, but they're coming off a win against Rutgers that they're hoping will lead to some momentum for them in the final stretch of the season.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for this rivalry game.

Michigan State vs. Michigan Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Michigan State +13.5 (-114)
• Michigan -13.5 (-106)

Moneyline

• Michigan State +440
• Michigan -580

Total

• OVER 40.5 (-106)
• UNDER 40.5 (-114)

Michigan State vs. Michigan Betting Trends

• Michigan is 3-1 against the spread in the last four meetings between these two teams
• The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings between these two teams
• Michigan State is 5-3 against the spread this season
• The UNDER is 6-2 in Michigan State games this season
• Michigan is 2-5 against the spread this season
• The UNDER is 6-2 in Michigan games this season

Michigan State vs. Michigan How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, November 7
• Time: 7:30 PM ET
• Venue: Michigan Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): Peacock
• Michigan State record: 2-6 (0-5 in Big Ten)
• Michigan record: 5-3 (2-3 in Big Ten)

Michigan State vs. Michigan Key Player to Watch

• Tommy Carr, QB - Michigan Wolverines

Tommy Carr had a solid showing in his second start for the Wolverines, completing 22-of-27 passes for 266 yards and a touchdown while adding 54 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Just as important is the fact that he didn't throw an interception. If he can continue on that path, Michigan, with its already elite defense, is going to be a tough opponent for any team to face the rest of the season.

Michigan State vs. Michigan Prediction and Best Bet

I'm going to buy some stock on Michigan after a rough start to the season. It's going to be hard for the Spartans to move the ball with any level of consistency in this game. They're 79th in adjusted EPA per play and 68th in success rate, and now they have to face a Michigan team that is arguably a top-10 defense in the country, including ranking fifth in defense success rate.

The Michigan State defense has done a solid job of stopping the run this year, but I think Tommy Carr will be able to torch them throughout the year. Michigan State ranks 99th in opponent EPA per pass and 79th in pass defense success rate.

I'll lay the points with the Wolverines.

Pick: Michigan -13.5 (-106) via FanDuel

---

Follow Iain on X and Instagram

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

Claim the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code offer to earn $50 in bonus bets every day for seven days. Simply sign up, deposit, and bet $5 on seven consecutive days, and receive your $350 bonus.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.