Michigan State vs. Notre Dame Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 3

The No. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish are off to a great start in the 2026 season, proving why they’re one of the top teams in the odds to win the College Football Playoff this season.

Marcus Freeman’s group blew out Wisconsin in Week 1 – 41-13 – and it followed that up with a 52-0 win over Rice in Week 2.

Things get a little tougher on Saturday, Sept. 19, as the Fighting Irish host the 2-0 Michigan State Spartans at 7:30 p.m. EST. Michigan State is unranked ahead of this matchup, but it has back-to-back wins over Toledo and Eastern Michigan to open the season.

Quarterback Alessio Milivojevic has thrown for three scores, no picks and completed over 70 percent of his passes this season for the Spartans. He’ll have a much tougher matchup against a Notre Dame defense that is No. 32 in the country in EPA/Play on defense through two weeks.

Heisman candidate C.J. Carr and the Fighting Irish are nearly 30-point favorites at home in this matchup as the team looks to move to 3-0 against the spread (and overall) in 2026.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for Saturday night’s battle between two undefeated programs.

Michigan State vs. Notre Dame Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Michigan State +29.5 (-110)
Notre Dame -29.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Michigan State: +2000
Notre Dame: -6500

Total

51.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Michigan State vs. Notre Dame How to Watch

Date: Saturday, Sept. 19
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Notre Dame Stadium
How to Watch (TV): NBC
Michigan State record: 2-0
Notre Dame record: 2-0

Michigan State vs. Notre Dame Key Player to Watch

C.J. Carr, Quarterback, Notre Dame

Carr is one of the leading candidates to win the Heisman this season, and for good reason. Not only are the Fighting Irish in a position to be one of the top seeds in the College Football Playoff, but Carr is one of the best passers in the country.

Through two games, he’s completed 71.4 percent of his passes for 492 yards, six scores, no picks and taken just one sack. Carr doesn’t run the ball as much as some of the other Heisman options at quarterback, but he’s been really efficient throwing the ball, completing 80 percent of his throws against Rice while notching four TDs.

Michigan State is 31st in the country in defensive success rate against the pass, but it has faced two lesser programs in Eastern Michigan and Toledo. Oddsmakers clearly expect Carr and this offense to shine on Saturday night.

Michigan State vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick

Early in the season, it’s hard to put too much stock into results for college football teams, especially if they don’t have a tough out-of-conference matchup.

Michigan State has eased into the season against two inferior programs, going 1-0-1 against the spread in its wins. Milivojevic has looked pretty good for the Spartans, but he’s now taking on a Notre Dame team with legitimate national championship expectations this season.

Milivojevic has led this offense to a T-22nd start in offensive success rate through the air, but the Spartans have struggled to run the ball a bit, ranking 112th in the country in EPA/Rush.

If Michigan State becomes one-dimensional against the Fighting Irish, this game could be over quickly.

Notre Dame allowed just 13 points against another Big Ten foe in Wisconsin in Week 1, and it is 23rd in the country in early down EPA/Play on defense.

Carr is one of the best quarterbacks in the country, so I expect the Fighting Irish to put up points against a Michigan State defense that is 60th in EPA/Pass and allowed 20 points to Toledo in Week 1.

With Notre Dame at home, I don’t mind laying the number on Saturday. The Fighting Irish are 2-0 against the spread this season with wins by 28 and 52 points.

Pick: Notre Dame -29.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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